Blue Diamond Stakes Tips: Who history points to winning
- Which horse do the recent trends in the Blue Diamond point towards?
The Blue Diamond (1200m) is Melbourne’s premier two-year-old race and has been won in the past by the likes of Sepoy, Bel Esprit, Redoute’s Choice and Manikato.
When it comes to picking a winner, the race for the leading juveniles can be a tricky one, as it usually matches up the colts and geldings against the fillies for the first time, with both sexes coming out of different lead up races. In order to take some of the guesswork out of the race for you, we have analysed the trends of the race since the year 2000. Here are a few things to consider.
The boys have a better record in the Blue Diamond since the year 2000, winning it 12 times, while the fillies have scored on eight occasions in that time period. Over the last eight years it has been the girls that have won on five occasions with Lyre (2019), Catchy (2017), Earthquake (2014), Miracles Of Life (2013) and Samaready (2012).
Written By won in 2018, while Extreme Choice (2016) and Pride Of Dubai (2015) are other recent winners. That trio were colts. Only two geldings have won the race since the year 2000 and they are Kusi (2003) and Road To Success (2000).
This year, seven of the field of 16 are colts, while the rest are fillies. The first two horses in the market are colts and they are Hanseatic at $2.50, while Rulership is at $6. Next is Letzbeglam at $7, Away Game at $9 and Muntaseera at $12. The latter trio are all fillies.
For fans of the favoured runners, it is interesting to note that the past nine winners of the Blue Diamond have all paid single figures. Six of those started as the outright favourite, including Written By and Extreme Choice.
Since the year 2000, the roughies have fared a little bit better and the average starting price of the winners since the year 2000 has been $8.40.
The shortest priced winner in the past 20 years was Sepoy, who scored at the odds of $1.40 in 2011, while Bel Esprit started as a $2 popular elect when he won in 2002.
Anthony Freedman will be going for back to back wins in the race after saddling up another Godoplphin galloper, Lyre, last year. He has Hanseatic in the race. David Hayes won the race on three consecutive occasions from 2006-2008 with Nadeem, Sleek Chassis and Reward For Effort. He teamed up with Tom Dabernig and his son Ben in 2017 to claim victory with Catchy. This year that trio have Aryaaf, Personal and Riverina Storm.
Another successful trainer includes Peter Snowden, who has won the race three times in the past nine years. The last two of those have been in partnership with his son, Paul. This year they saddle up Rulership. The Ciaron Maher and David Eustace stable have six runners this year and will be aiming for their first win in the race. That duo missed out with Loving Gaby last year. The recent Lightning Stakes (1000m) placgetter ran 8th as favourite in the race last year.
Successful jockeys in the Blue Diamond Stakes include Dwayne Dunn, who rode all three winners for Hayes from 2006-2008 as well as Undoubtedly for Mark Kavanagh in 2005. Dunn steers Riverina Storm this year. Craig Williams was aboard Catchy in 2017 and will be on Personal. Luke Currie again teams up with Anthony Freedman after riding Lyre last year and is on Hanseatic.
The obvious lead up to Saturday’s feature is the Blue Diamond Preludes, which have supplied 13 of the past 20 winners and seven of the past nine, including Lyre last year.Extreme Choice came out of the Chairman’s Stakes (1100m) in 2016, while Miracles Of Life jumped straight from the Blue Diamond Preview (1000) when she won in 2013.
This year, the Prelude trifecta for the colts and geldings was Hanseatic from Rulership and Rathlin, while in the fillies it was Letzbeglam by two lengths from Muntaseera and Geist.
Of the 13 winners that came out of the Preludes, 10 had won that lead up, while one other had placed.12 winners have finished in the top two at their previous start. A lot of the pre race discussion has centred around Hanseatic drawing barrier 1. Only Miracles Of Life has been able to win from that slot. However, 12 of the past 20 winners have drawn in the inside half of the field and with some luck in running, the favourite can take this out.
Selections based on trends:
Despite drawing the inside, Hanseatic ticks a lot of boxes.