Canterbury Stakes Tips: Who history points to winning
- Which horse does history say will win the Canterbury Stakes?
The Canterbury Stakes (1300m) is one of the features at Randwick on Saturday March 7 and was granted Group 1 status in 2013, the year that Pierro took out the $500,000 affair as even money favourite.
The Canterbury Stakes was always run at Canterbury Park Racecourse but after the Australian Jockey Club and the Sydney Turf Club merged it was shifted to Rosehill as part of some program changes at the time. It was held at that course from 2004 until 2013 (in 2008 it was held at Canterbury) and since then it has been held at the Randwick Racecourse.
Asides from Pierro, some other notable names that feature on the honour roll include More Joyous (2011/2012), All Our Mob (1997), Placid Ark (1987) and Manikato (1982). Trapeze Artist is the most recent winner, while the popular galloper, Happy Clapper, won the event in 2018 before going on to take out the Doncaster This year’s edition of the race pits a small but select field up against one another and it is Standout that is a $2.50 favourite in early markets with Sportsbet ahead of Savatiano ($3.40) and Alizee ($3.60).
So just which horse will take out the Canterbury Stakes on Saturday? If we analyse the trends of the race since the year 2000 we can narrow the result down to a few contenders. For those that are keen to back Standout, keep in mind that the race has generally been a good one for favourites with 10 of the 20 winners since 2000 scoring as the popular elect. Shogun Lodge ($21 in 2001) is the only galloper to score above $7.50 in that time period. Trapeze Artist won as a $3.80 favourite last year, while Happy Clapper scored as a $4.60 popular elect in 2018. In 2017, Chautauqua missed out as a $3.75 chance to Le Romain ($4.50). The average price of the winning horses has been just $4.80.
The Bostonian is fourth favourite at the $14 quote, while Begood Toya Mother ($16), Mister Sea Wolf ($26) and White Moss ($34) are others that will have to defy recent history. Gerald Ryan, Patrick Webster and Kris Lees are the recent winning trainers in the race but it is Gai Waterhouse that has been the most successful trainer in the period since 2000. The leading lady has trained a lazy five winners since 2000.
The Hawkes stable won four of five from 2004 until 2008. Those winners were Yell (2004), Paratroopers (2006), Malcolm (2007) and Mentality (2007). The Waterhouse and Hawkes stables are without runners this year.
Standout is the sole three-year-old in the race this year and horses in that age bracket have won the race on five occasions since 2000, as have the five-year-olds. The four-year-olds have been the most successful with seven winners but none in the field are that age this year. Savatiano, Alizee, Begged Toya Mother and The Bostonian are all five.
With the changing conditions in the race it is difficult to pinpoint the ideal lead up form over the years. Contenders this year come from a wide variety of races, however, it is worth noting that 13 of the past 15 winners had raced at least once in the weeks before the Canterbury Stakes when they won. Happy Clapper and More Joyous are the only gallopers since 2000 to win when resuming.
This year, The Bostonian and Mister Sea Wolf resume, while Savatiano and Standout are second up.
Selection according to trends:
According to trends it is a race in three and Standout just gets the nod over the others.