Caulfield Guineas Tips & Preview
Looking for Caulfield Guineas Tips and Best Bets on Saturday, October 10? Our form analyst previews the colts and geldings feature and gives his top predictions.
Caulfield Guineas Preview
The early scratching of Glenfiddich leaves us with a field of 14 heading into Saturday’s Group 1 Caulfield Guineas (1600m) at Caulfield.
Six runners come through the Caulfield Guineas Prelude (1400m), three runners come via the Golden Rose Stakes (1400m) and Tagaloa drops back to his own age group after competing in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m).
The unbeaten Mo’unga comes through the Dulcify Quality (1500m), Lunar Fox comes via the Stutt Stakes (1600m) while Poland and Grandslam make up the remainder of the field having finished 1st and 2nd in a BM64.
Class and Form
Two runners appear to be a cut above the rest on both class and recent form.
Tagaloa posted the strongest last start performance on BM ratings and went 9.7 lengths quicker than standard BM when 6th in the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m).
Ole Kirk is next best having gone 9.1 lengths quicker than standard when winning the Golden Rose Stakes (1400m).
Ole Kirk also boasts the highest career performance having gone 11.5 lengths quicker than BM when runner-up in the Run To The Rose (1200m) while Tagaloa’s PB was 11 lengths quicker than standard when he won the Blue Diamond Stakes (1200m).
Crosshaven also has a PB of 9.5 lengths quicker than BM, and while the relatively untapped Mo’unga rates a few lengths back having gone 7.2 lengths quicker than standard, he could improve out of sight here.
King’s Legacy went to a new level in the Golden Rose and he previously had the wood on Ole Kirk in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes (1600m) so he has to be considered a top chance.
I’m confident the winner comes from this quintet.
Who will win the 2020 Caulfield Guineas?
Mo’unga defeated Global Quest by 1.5 lengths in the Dulcify, and Global Quest then finished nine lengths from Ole Kirk last start, so I have my doubts on Mo’unga’s form.
However, there is plenty of rain predicted leading up to Saturday’s showpiece and a rain-affected track could make this high pressure event more like an 1800m race which would suit Mo’unga who is by Savabeel and out of the O’Reilly mare Chandelier.
Ole Kirk’s effort in the Champagne Stakes has me concerned, as does King’s Legacy drawing barrier 12.
Tagaloa’s effort in the Sir Rupert Clarke was far better than it reads on ratings as he was caught three and four wide without cover for the entire trip and battled on gamely to post a strong figure.
He was entitled to drop out after such a tough run and that eases any concerns of him running the mile out.
Craig Williams jumps on board from barrier 3, and the pair look set to make their own luck and are likely to land right behind the pace.
Others will need more luck in running, and that gives Tagaloa the edge in an open event.