Caulfield Guineas Winning Trends

Adam Cusworth in Caulfield Guineas 6 Oct 2020
caulfield guineas trends

 

The Caulfield Guineas (1600m) is arguably the best race in Australia each year for the three-year-olds and we take a look at the Caulfield Guineas winning trends.

The $2 million feature has a star-studded honour roll that features the likes of All Too Hard, Weekend Hussler and Lonhro. Last year, it was Super Seth that scored in a stirring edition of the race ahead of Alligator Blood.

This year, its is a close relative of All Too Hard that is favourite in early markets with ladbrokes at the $4.60 quote. Glenfiddich is at $5.50, while Mo’unga is at $6.50. Other contenders below double figures are King’s Legacy at $7.50 and Tagaloa at $8.

So will it Ole Kirk that salutes or can another rival get the job done? If we look at the Caulfield Guineas winning trends since the year 2000 there are a few things to keep in mind that may be able to help answer those questions and ultimately find a winner.

Despite the antics of Mighty Boss in 2017, who scored at cricket score odds of $101, the race has generally been an ok one for those higher in the market. Eight of 20 favourites have won the race since 2000, while another six started at single figure odds.

While not quite in the league of Mighty Boss at $101, there have two other winners since 2000 that have landed at a big price and they were Econsul at $41 in 2004 and In Top Swing at $21 in 2003.

Last year, Super Seth scored at $7.50, while Dalasan placed 5th as a $3.50 favourite. In 2018, The Autumn Sun romped home as a $1.70 favourite. The average starting price of the winners since 2000 has been $13 but that number drops to $8 if we remove Mighty Boss from the equation.

The Caulfield Guineas usually brings together the finest three-year-old gallopers from both Melbourne and Sydney and as always, there is conjecture about which state has the best lead up form. Seven of the past nine winners have hailed from Sydney but not all had their previous run in Sydney.

Only one of those have come out of the Golden Rose and that was The Autumn Sun in 2018. A further three had their final run at Rosehill in the Stan Fox Stakes (1500m). The Autumn Sun placed 3rd in that race in 2018 and then had a dazzling win in the Golden Rose (1400m).

In total, 12 of the 20 winners since 2000 have come from NSW. Of the contenders this year, Ole Kirk is listed as being part of the Team Hawkes’ Flemington stable and begun his career in this state but has done his recent racing in Sydney. The son of Written Tycoon claimed the Golden Rose recently, while King’s Legacy was 3rd in that race.

King’s Legacy comes down from Sydney, as does Mamaragan and Mo’unga. The latter is another that is listed as being trained in Melbourne but he has mainly been based at Chris Waller’s Sydney stables and all of his runs have been north of the border.

Of the 20 winners since 2000, 12 have come through lead up races in Melbourne including eight from the Caulfield Guineas Prelude (1400m). Crosshaven claimed that race this year from Amish Boy and National Choice. Three gallopers have completed the double, while four have placed in the Prelude before winning the Guineas. Last year, Alligator Blood defeated Dalasun in the Prelude, while Super Seth was 5th.

Two winners have come out of the Bill Stutt Stakes (1600m) at Moonee Valley. Showtime won that lead up in 2017, while the eventual Caulfield Guineas winner, Mighty Boss, ran 4th. This year, Glenfiddich was dominant in that race.

The Caulfield Guineas is seen as a future stallion-making race with top sires including Lonhro (2001) and Redoute’s Choice (1999) to have won. Since 2000, 16 colts have won the Guineas while only four geldings have been successful. This year, Crosshaven is the only gelding. All other contenders are colts.

Horses that have drawn within barriers 1-8 appear to have an advantage in the Caulfield Guineas as these barriers have accounted for 15 of the 20 winners since 2000. Four of the past 11 winners have jumped from barrier 1 and they are Divine Prophet (2016), Long John (2013), Anacheeva (2010) and Starspangledbanner (2009).

This year, Amish Boy has drawn the inside, while Tagaloa (3), Ole Kirk (7) and Glenfiddich (8) have also fared well from a trends perspective. The most successful trainers since the year 2000 have been Peter Snowden and John Hawkes with three winners apiece. Chris Waller has won the race twice.

This year, the Snowdens take King’s Legacy into the race, while the Hawkes’ have Ole Kirk. Chris Waller has Mo’unga. Peter Moody won with Anacheeva in 2010 and has Glenfiddich.

James McDonald, Steven King, Dwayne Dunn, Kerrin McEvoy and Luke Nolen have all enjoyed two wins in the Guineas since 2000. Of that group, Nolen is in action and he rides Glenfiddich. Mark Zahra claimed the race last year and is on Cambourne.

Selection based on the Caulfield Guineas winning trends.

History points to horses in single figure odds that have come down from Sydney or have raced in the Caulfield Guineas Prelude. Contenders that have drawn between barrier’s 1 to 8 have also fared better. Ole Kirk ticks all of those boxes and he comes from a successful stable when you look at this race.

 

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