Caulfield Stakes Winning Trends

Adam Cusworth in Caulfield Stakes 7 Oct 2020
Caulfield Stakes trends

 

The Caulfield Stakes (2000m) is always one of the highlights of Caulfield Guineas day and and we take a look at the Caulfield Stakes winning trends.

The $1 million affair, which is known as the NEDS Stakes this year, is one of four Group 1 races at Caulfield on Saturday October 12 and has been won by some champion gallopers in the past including Winx in 2016 as well as So You Think (2010), Lonhro (2002/2003) and Might And Power (1998). Others to feature on the honour roll include Kingston Town (1981/1982) and Gunsynd (1972).

This year’s field has attracted just six runners and an absence of international contenders but there is plenty to look forward to as it is a very select field. The $1.55 favourite in early markets with NEDS is Russian Camelot, while Arcadia Queen is at $4.50. Humidor is at $5.50, while the other contenders are Harbour Views ($20), Gailo Chop ($26) and Levendi ($61).

In taking a look at the Caulfield Stakes winning trends since the year 2000, it has generally been a good one for favourite backers with a host of big names winning at short prices, including Winx, Atlantic Jewel, So You Think, Whobegotyou and Northerly. For fans of Russian Camelot, five winners have started at odds on since 2000 and all have won. However, Avilius missed out as a $2.05 favourite last year with Cape Of Good Hope scoring at $21.

16 of the 20 winners since 2000 have scored at single figure odds with only Descarado (2011), Duoro Valley (2008) and Casual Pass (2006) bucking that trend.

The Underwood Stakes (1800m) at Caulfield is the tried and true lead up to the Caulfield Stakes and has provided nine winners since 2000, including Atlantic Jewel in 2013 and Ocean Park in 2012. Three horses have achieved the Underwood/Caulfield Stakes double since 2000 and they were Ocean Park, So You Think and Northerly. Three were placed and a further two were unplaced in the Underwood before achieving success over the extra 200m.

This year, Russian Camelot was too good for Humidor and Arcadia Queen in that race. Gailo Chop was 4th and Harbour Views 6th. Levendi comes out of the JRA Cup (2040m) at Moonee Valley.

An interesting statistic from a trends point of view is that horses aged five have thrived in this race, winning it on 10 occasions since 2000. Arcadia Queen is the sole five-year-old. Six horses aged four have won since 2000 and Russian Camelot is in that category this year.

Drawing a good barrier has never really been a factor in this race with winners coming from a variety of positions, although in fields with eight or less, none have drawn barrier 1. Humidor is in that slot this year.

Of the trainers with a runner on Saturday, only Chris Waller and Danny O’Brien have had success in the race. Waller won with the mighty Winx in 2016 and has Humidor this year. O’Brien won with Duoro Valley and has Russian Camelot this year.

Darren Beadman partnered Lonhro to victory in his wins at Caulfield and is one of five jockeys that have tasted success in the race on more than one occasion since 2000. The other four are Damien Oliver, Glen Boss, Michael Rodd and Nash Rawiler. Of that group, Oliver rides Russian Camelot this year.

Selection according to the Caulfield Stakes winning trends:

Russian Camelot has history on his side.

 

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