CF Orr Stakes Tips: Who history points to winning
- Which horse do the recent trends in the CF Orr Stakes point towards?
The CF Orr Stakes (1400m) is traditionally Australia’s first Group 1 race of the calendar year and features an honour roll that reads like a who’s who of Australian racing.
Past winners include champions such as Black Caviar, Lonhro, Saintly and Manikato, while in recent times the $500,000 Group 1 has been taken out by the likes of Hartnell and Black Heart Bart. Last year’s winner was the recently deceased Manuel.
When having a bet on this classic race, there are a few things to keep in mind. Favourites have an excellent record, especially in recent times. With the exception of Manuel, who scored as a $21 chance last year, as well as Suavito, who scored as a $15 chance in 2016, the popular fancies have done well.
Between 2010 and 2015, the average price of the winners was just $1.97. That figure is compressed somewhat, due to the mighty Black Caviar scoring at the bank interest odds of $1.05 in 2012, while the fellow Peter Moody-trained mare, Typhoon Tracy, saluted at $1.40 in 2010. Typhoon Tracy backed up her win in the Orr by winning again in 2011 at $2. Black Heart Bart saluted as a $3.25 popular elect in 2017.
In 2018, Hartnell lobbed as a $6 chance, while Darren Weir’s Tosen Stardom flopped as a $4 favourite for the disgraced trainer. Kementari missed out as a $2.50 chance last year.
Since 2000, the average winning price is a bit healthier at $7. Shinzig (2008) at $26 and Desert Sky (2001) at $17 are the only other runners apart from Suavito and Manuel to score at odds of above $10.
In early markets this year with sportsbet this year it is the last start Australia Stakes (1200m) winner, Scales Of Justice, that has been posted as a $2.80 favourite ahead of the likes of Hey Doc ($6) and Alabama Expres ($8.50). Avilius, Fierce Impact and Begood Toya Mother are all at $9, while Ringerdingding ($12) heads the rest.
The weight-for-age race tends to attract some seasoned horses that are returning from a spell. Seven horses out of the field are 12 this year are resuming, including Avilius and Fierce Impact. Since 2000, nine of the 20 winners were fresh off a spell.
However, seven of the past nine winners have had their previous race at Moonee Valley. Six of those seven came out of the Australia Stakes (1200m), while All Too Hard was first up after having run in the previous year’s Cox Plate (2040m). Only Black Caviar has won both the Australia Stakes and Orr Stakes in the same year.
This year, the Australia Stakes was taken out by Scales Of Justice, who prevailed from Hey Doc. Ringerdingding was 4th.
Horses aged five or six have combined to win 11 of the past 14 Orr Stakes. Horses aged five this year include Fifty Stars and Begood Toya Mother. Avilius, Hey Doc, Fierce Impact, Kings Will Dream, So Si Bon, Mirage Dancer and Nights Watch, are six.
It should also be noted that Alabama Express is the sole three-year-old in this race. The youngsters had a mortgage on this race in the early 2000s, winning it four times in a row. Redoutes Choice was a winner in 2000, while in 2002, Barkada upstaged Northerly. Since 2003, however, only All Too Hard has prevailed as a three-year-old.
The 1400 metre start of the Orr Stakes presents a short run to the first turn, which can disadvantage runners to have drawn out and 13 of the past 19 winners have drawn between barriers 1-7. Barrier 1 has provided four winners of the race since 2000. This year, Ringerdingding, Kings Will Dream, Avilius, Fifty Stars, Hey Doc, Begged Toya Mother and Scales Of Justice occupy the first seven barriers.
The Orr Stakes (1400m) was dominated by Peter Moody gallopers from 2010 to 2015, with five of six winners coming out of that stable in that time period, while other successful trainers since the year 2000 include Lee Freedman and John Hawkes. Tony McEvoy and James Cummings are recent winners.
That pair have Hey Doc and Avilius. Of the hoops, Luke Nolen has had four winners courtesy of his association with Peter Moody but is without a ride in 2020. Luke Currie was the winning jockey last year and he rides Hey Doc. Craig Williams will be out to make it two wins in three years and he rides Fierce Impact.
CF Orr Stakes Prediction
Leading horses in the market have a top record in the Orr Stakes and a recent trend is the Australia Stakes form. Hey Doc can turn the tables on Scales Of Justice. Ringerdingding is the value runner.