CF Orr Stakes Tips & Preview
CF ORR STAKES TIPS & PREVIEW
Our 2022 CF Orr Stakes Tips will be available following the barrier draw. See below for an example of what to expect in 2022.
The 2021 winner, Streets Of Avalon ($8.50 SP) was tipped as our best value for the CF Orr.
A field of nine will assemble for the first Group 1 race in 2021, and with 10 to 25mm of rain predicted for Caulfield on Friday, we are likely to be racing on a Soft track.
The weather Gods must be smiling on race favourite Sir Dragonet who was unlikely to run unless the track had some give in it.
However, it doesn’t pan out as well for last start Australia Stakes winner Streets Of Avalon who really drops in rating when he races on a Soft surface.
Which is a pity because Streets Of Avalon has won as many races at Caulfield (4) as all the other runners combined, and he generally improves second-up and would have been perfectly suited by the pace of this race and dominated out in front.
A Good 4 to Soft 5 gives him a chance, but anything worse than a Soft 5 and you can count him out base on all of his previous benchmark (BM) performances on Soft going.
HORSES THAT FACE AN UPHILL BATTLE
The rank outsider Arcadia Prince looks way out of his depth here and I think we can comfortably put the pen through him as he would need to improve his personal best (PB) by 10 lengths to figure in the finish.
Humidor doesn’t have a great record at the track with one win and six placings from 16 attempts, but his only win at the track was at this trip when winning 2018 Memsie Stakes.
However, he was second-up on that occasion, and his first-up record leaves a lot to be desired with two placings from eight attempts – put the pen through him also.
Angel Of Truth will get conditions to suit but is likely to need the run and will be better suited over further later this campaign.
Blazejowski has a PB (12.1 lengths quicker than standard BM) that sees him competitive at this distance with fitness on his side, but he carried 55.5kg when running that PB and I don’t rate his chances at weight-for-age coming off some low rating performances this campaign.
Sovereign Award has also produced some strong figures throughout her career, but her first-up performances rate five to 10 lengths below what’s needed to win the CF Orr Stakes.
That leaves us with Sir Dragonet, Streets Of Avalon (if the track is better than a Soft 6), Imaging and Crosshaven.
WHO WILL WIN THE 2021 CF ORR STAKES?
Sir Dragonet has posted the strongest BM figure of any horse in the CF Orr Stakes when going 16.3 lengths quicker than standard in the Melbourne Cup (3200m).
He won the Cox Plate (2040m) first-up going 13 lengths quicker than standard, and it was also his first run in Australia for new trainers Ciaron Maher and David Eustace.
Don’t forget Humidor won at this trip and was also an eye-catching 4th in a Futurity Stakes (1400m) after finishing runner-up to Winx in the Cox Plate and then finishing 19th in a Melbourne Cup in his previous campaign.
Sir Dragonet should be open to plenty of improvement on what he did in the spring now that he’s had a chance to acclimatise and settle in to his new surrounding and training regime.
Five of Imaging’s top six performances have been on rain-affected tracks, and his chances are reliant on the track condition.
If the track were to get to a Soft 6 or worse, he rates a chance, and Savatiano trialled similarly in the 900m heat at Randwick on January 21 and then took out the Group 2 Expressway Stakes (1200m) last Saturday.
I just don’t think Imaging is favoured by the speed map and he’ll need to come from near last on the bend to run some handy types down.
The three-year-old gelding Crosshaven is a winner at the track and trip having taken out the Caulfield Guineas Prelude were he went 6.1 lengths quicker than BM.
He is the unknown quantity and could improve out of sight on what he’s done to date.
Crosshaven was pushed out to win a recent 1000m barrier trial at Geelong where he defeated the unraced McIlroy and five-start maiden Ironedge.
It was hardly inspiring work for a horse heading into a Group 1 race, but as I mentioned, he could improve out of sight and only has to carry 55.5kg.
If the track is a Soft 5 or better, I’m not discounting Streets Of Avalon who will prove hardest to pass in the straight – he’s just so tough.
All in all, I can’t go past the ultra-impressive Sir Dragonet despite this distance appearing to be unsuitable.
He maps to sit three pairs back on the outside of Blazejowski, and if Glen Boss can blend him into the race on the bend, he should have the sharp turn of foot fresh to mow them down.