Champagne Stakes Trends: Who history points to winning
- Which horse do the long term trends point towards in the Champagne Stakes?
CHAMPAGNE STAKES HISTORICAL TRENDS
How can the Champagne Stakes (1600m) trends help us find a winner in the first of the two Group 1 races at Randwick on Saturday?
The Champagne Stakes (1600m) is the final leg of the Sydney Triple Crown for the two-year-olds and has been won by some quality gallopers in recent times, including Pierro in 2012 and Dance Hero in 2004.
The Group 1 feature has been a permanent fixture on the Sydney racing calendar since 1861 and has also been taken out by Luskin Star (1977), Vain (1969) and Flight (1943). When trying to find a winner in the Randwick mile race, there are a few things to take into account and if we have a look at Champagne Stakes trends since the year 2000 it reveals the following.
Plenty of short priced favourites have featured after some big performances in either the Slipper or the Sires. Since 2000, 10 of the 20 winners have started as the popular elect, making it a reasonably good race for favourite backers.
Last year’s Champagne Stakes was taken out by the $2.90 favourite, Castelvecchio. The two winners prior to that paid $9 but Prized Icon (2016) and Pasadena Girl (2015) are other recent favourites to score.
The market this year sees the Peter and Paul Snowden-trained King’s Legacy installed as a $2.35 chance with Sportsbet ahead of Ole Kirk at the $3.80. Holyfield is at $8, while a couple more Snowden horse are next best and they are Aim ($8) and Untamed ($12).
For fans of King’s Legacy, six of the past nine editions of the race have been won by the race favourite. Only three favourites have finished out of the top 3 in the Champagne Stakes since 2000 and they were Peggy Jean, who ran 5th as a $3.25 chance in 2014, while Benetau was 6th as a $4.50 chance in 2009.
The average price of the winning horses has been $6 and there have only been two winners to have paid double figure odds or better.
A number of the contenders come out of the Sires Produce Stakes (1400m) that is run at Randwick on Day One of The Championships. 17 of the past 20 Champagne Stakes winners had their previous start in the Sires. Castlevecchio was 3rd in that race last year.
Of the contenders this year, King’s Legacy, comes out of the Sires Produce and won that race. Eight horses have been able to complete the double since 2000. Others include, Ole Kirk, who was 4th, Aim (5th) and Glenfiddich (6th).
Champagne winners to come out of other lead ups include Prized Icon, who won the Fernhill Handicap (1600m) in 2016, while Go Indy Go came out of the SA Sires Produce (1400m) at Morphettville, when she won in 2014.
Carry On Cutie had her previous run in the Magic Night Stakes (1200m), when she scored in 2005. Holyfield claimed the Fernhill this year from Untamed, while Fayerra was 3rd.
16 of the 20 winners have drawn between barrier’s 1-7 and the average field size has been 10 runners. The most successful barrier has been No.6, which has provided six winners. The outsider, Mandalong Beyond, has drawn that barrier this year, while Fayerra, Untamed, King’s Legacy, Aim and Holyfield are inside her.
There are three fillies in this year’s race and the girls have won eight of the 20 editions. The fillies this year are Philizzy, Fayerra and Mandalong Beyond.
The most successful trainers in the race have been Gai Waterhouse and Peter Snowden. The Snowden’s have King’s Legacy, Aim and Untamed.
Of the hoops, Hugh Bowman, Kerrin McEvoy, Nash Rawiler and Lenny Beasley have all won the race on two occasions since 2000. Bowman is on King’s Legacy this year, while McEvoy rides Aim. Rawiler is aboard Untamed.
Selections according to the Champagne Stakes trends.
Definitely go with the Sires Produce form. King’s Legacy should be hard to beat.
rb-banner bookmaker=”3266″ prediction=”King’s Legacy” odds=”$2.35″ info=”” label=”Prediction” link=”/au/go/sportsbet” ]