Chipping Norton Stakes Tips: Who history points to winning
- Winx won this race in the last four years. Who will join the immortal on the winners list?
The Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m) is one of the premier mile races on the Australian racing calendar and it is the superstar mare, Winx, who made the race her own in recent years, winning it from 2016-2019.
Outside of Winx, the weight-for-age conditions of the race have attracted some other classy performers over the years, including Lonhro, Tie The Knot, Octagonal and Super Impose.
That group are among some of the champions that have taken out the Chipping Norton in the last 30 years, while Tulloch and Phar Lap are other big names to feature on the honour roll. Winx joined Tie The Knot as a four time winner of the Chipping Norton, while her former stablemate, Shoot Out, is a two time winner. Winx’ trainer, Chris Waller has been the dominant force in the Chipping Norton in recent years, taking out eight of the past nine editions of the race.
Boban (2014) and Danleigh (2011) were his other winners outside of Shoot Out and Winx. Just which horse can join those champions without the retired Winx in this year’s field? We have analysed the trends of the race since the year 2000 and it points to the following. In the 20 edition’s of the race in that time period, 13 have been won by the starting favourite. Three others were ‘odds on’ and they were Tuesday Joy in 2009, Grand Armee in 2005 and Lonhro in 2003.
This year, the New Zealand galloper, Te Akau Shark, has been posted as a $2.50 favourite in early markets with sportsbet ahead of Dreamforce at $5.50 and Avilius at $6.50. Fierce Impact is at $8, while Happy Clapper heads the rest at $11. There has been only one blowout winner in recent memory and that occurred when the Graeme Roberson-Trained He’s No Pie Eater won at the massive odds of $81 in 2007.
Desert War started as a $2.60 favourite that year. The average price of the winners since 2000 has been $7.20. Five-year-olds have been the most successful in the Chipping Norton since 2000 and horses in that age bracket this year are Te Akau Shark, Danceteria, Come Play With Me and Danzdanzdance. 16 of the past 20 winners have jumped from the first six barriers, including seven of the past eight. Barrier 4 has produced four of the past six winners and has accounted for seven winners since the year 2000.
This year, Life Less Ordinary, Homesman, Danzdanzdance, Dreamforce, Djukon and Fierce Impact occupy those spots. Hugh Bowman has been the most successful jockey in the race since the year 2000, courtesy of his association with Chris Waller. The pair have teamed up to win the race on seven occasions.
This year, Hugh Bowman is aboard the James Cummings-trained Avilius. Chris Waller takes a five-pronged attack into the race and has Come Play With Me, Life Less Ordinary, Djukon, Verry Elegant and Danzdanzdance. The ideal lead up form to the Chipping Norton has been the Apollo Stakes (1400m). 15 of the past 20 winners have come out of that Group 2 lead up including nine of the past 10.
Winx won that race the year and in 2016 & 2017 but in 2018 connections opted to bypass the Apollo as Hugh Bowman was serving a suspension. Those that raced in the Apollo this year are Dreamforce (2nd), Happy Clapper (3rd), Verry Elegant (4th), Danzdanzdance (5th), Life Less Ordinary (6th), Angel Of Truth (8th) and Come Play With Me (9th). Te Akau Shark ran in New Zealand and took out the Group 1 GRP Sprint (1400m).
Selections based on trends:
It is hard to overlook the record of Waller. Prior to Winx he had a further four winners and three of those did not jump as the popular elect. However, Te Akau Shark ticks plenty of boxes based on trends as favourites have an excellent overall record in the Chipping Norton.