Doncaster Mile Tips: Who history points to winning

Adam Cusworth in Doncaster Mile 1 Apr 2020
  • Which horse do the long term trends point towards in the Doncaster MIle?
Brutal won the Doncaster Mile in 2019 Brutal won the Doncaster Mile in 2019

How can history help us sort out our Doncaster Mile tips at Randwick on Saturday?

Officially registered as the Doncaster Handicap, it is one of the oldest and most famous races on the Australian racing calendar and has been taken out by some champions of the turf including Winx, Sunline, Super Impose and Gunsynd.

In order to find you a winner, we have gone back through the record books to take a look at the trends of the race since the year 2000 and it points to the following.

Favourites have a moderate record in the race, having won it just six times since 2000. Only the big names have been able to score as a popular elect. They were Winx at $1.80 in 2016, More Joyous at $3.75 in 2012, Haradasun at $4.25 in 2007, Racing To Win at $4.50 in 2006, Private Steer at $4 in 2004 and Sunline at $2.80 in 2002.

Typhoon Tracy and Lonhro are just some of the favourites that have gone down. In early markets with Sportsbet this year, Brandenburg is a $6.50 chance, while Super Seth is at $7. Melody Belle is at $8.50, while Shared Ambition is at $11. Imaging, Quarterback and Prince Fawaz head the rest at $15.

The average price of the winning horses since the year 2000 has been $9.30 and the average field size has been 18. This year, a field of 20 plus four emergencies have accepted for the time-honoured classic.

In the past 12 years, Chris Waller has been the dominant force in the race, winning it in on six occasions, courtesy of Triple Honour (2008), Rangirangdoo (2010), Sacred Falls (2013 and 2014) Kermadec (2015) and the champion, Winx (2016).

This year, Waller has an amazing nine runners in the race and they are Kolding, Kings Will Dream, Mister Sea Wolf, Yulong Prince, Imaging, Star Of The Seas, Night’s Watch, Shared Ambition and Reloaded. Gai Waterhouse has won the race three times since 2000 and has Con Te Partiro as well as the second emergency, Wolfe.

The Handicap conditions of the race are one of the reasons why the Doncaster attracts a big field and the average weight of the winning gallopers since 2000 has been a tick over 53.5kg. This year, Con Te Partiro, Imaging and Quarterback carry that weight. Cascadian has 54kg.

Melody Belle and Kolding share the top weight billing with 57kg apiece. Happy Clapper managed to win with 57kg in 2018. Last year, Brutal won as a three-year-old and carried just 49.5kg.

Brandenburg and Prince Fawaz carry 50.5kg. The third emergency, Reloaded, has also been allotted 50.5kg. That trio, along with Super Seth are the three-year-olds in the race.

One thing to keep in mind for your Doncaster Mile tips is that youngsters have been the most successful age group since 2000, accounting for eight winners, including Kermadec, who won the event in 2015. Two of those three-year-olds started the race as favourite.

Branderburg and Super Seth were 4th and 7th respectively in the recent George Ryder Stakes (1500m). Brutal was runner-up behind the mighty Winx in last year’s George Ryder Stakes (1500m) before taking out the Doncaster. In 2018, Happy Clapper finished runner-up to Winx in the George Ryder before going one better in the Doncaster.

11 winners have had their last start in the George Ryder Stakes (1500m), and four have completed the double. Winx achieved that in 2016, as did Vision And Power (2009), Haradasun (2007) and Racing To Win (2006). Quarterback and Shared Ambition are among the four-year-olds in the race and, interestingly, horses belonging to that age bracket have won only three Doncaster’s since 2000.

They were Sacred Falls (2014), Private Steer (2004) and Grand Armee (2003). It is interesting to note that the big fields have played into the hands of horses drawn out, as 13 of the 20 winners since the year 2000 have drawn Barrier 10 or wider, including Brutal, who drew barrier 18 last year.

Of the key runners this year, Melody Belle has drawn barrier 14 but might come into 11 after scratchings and/or the removal of emergencies. Kolding has drawn barrier 17 and Cascadian has drawn 18.

Doncaster Mile tips based on trends
Super Seth is s top pick based on trends. If Reloaded can sneak into the field, the Waller three-year-old is well worth a wager at the price on offer.

Prediction
Super Seth $7.50 Bet now!
Prediction
Reloaded $27 Bet now!