Doomben Cup Tips & Preview
DOOMBEN CUP TIPS & PREVIEW
Looking for Doomben Cup tips and best bets? We dissect times and form to find the winner of the 2021 the Doomben Cup at Doomben.
The Doomben Cup shapes as a quality affair in 2021 with some big names in action, including the 2020 Cox Plate (2040m) winner, Sir Dragonet, as well as the likes of Mugatoo and the 14-time Group 1 winner, Melody Belle, who is set to run her last race on Saturday.
But it is the last start Hollindale Stakes (1800m) winner, Zaaki, that heads the market with NEDS after the barrier draw at the $3.20 quote ahead of Mugatoo ($3.70) and Sir Dragonet ($6.50). Fifty Stars is at $12, Avilius is at $14 and Shared ambition is at ($15). Toffee Tongue and Brandenburg are both at $16, while Melody Belle heads the rest at the $18 quote.
On face value it was hard not to be impressed by the performance of Zaaki in the Hollindale Stakes. The former import was lining up for just his third run on Australian soil and was posted out three wide without cover for much of the trip before cruising to a two-length win ahead of Fifty Stars on a Soft track that day.
Eight of the 12 runners in the Doomben Cup come out of the Hollindale. Zaaki went just three lengths faster than standard benchmark and some could argue that he was suited by the slow early tempo but in saying that it is hard to see any of those rivals turning things around.
Fifty Stars was runner-up and produced the second fastest last 200m behind the winner. He comes into this off a six week break and went 13 lengths faster than standard benchmark when third up in the Australian Cup (2000m) earlier this year, running 10th to Homesman. They are good figures but the form out of the Australian Cup hasn’t quite stacked up.
Shared Ambition settled up front in the Hollinale Stakes but lacked the dash at the business end and was 3rd behind the winner. Avilius settled back and produced similar figures to Zaaki over the last 800m and 600m en route to finishing 4th.
The Godolphin galloper comes into it with a faster tempo but it is hard to see where that might come from as there does not appear to be huge changes to the speed in this race in comparison to the Hollindale.
The stablemates, Humidor and Tofee Tongue, stuck on well for 5th and 6th, while Melody Belle had a bit of a torrid time of it and was 10th. Nettoyer was 11th.
Is there a fairytale in store for Melody Belle fans? I wouldn’t be writing her off completely as she did have a torrid run before being eased up. But her overall form in Australia is a question mark for mine with just the two wins from 15 attempts.
The most recent of those came in the 2019 Empire Rose Stakes (1600m) before she went 14.8 lengths faster than standard benchmark when runner-up behind the world class, Magic Wand, in the Mackinnon Stakes. She would need to run up to those efforts to take this out.
Looking at those that come out of other races and it is Sir Dragonet and Mugatoo that have had five weeks in between runs since landing 5th and 6th respectively I the Queen Elizebeth Stakes (2000m) behind Addeybb. Both were within two lengths of the winner and went seven lengths faster than standard.
Both are in the hunt on their respective efforts and on some of the figures they have produced in the past. Any wet weather will be a bonus but it is mainly fine conditions that are forecast in the lead up to the race.
Southern France comes out of the Sydney Cup and while he does boast the best last start benchmark figures of ay runner, a win would be a major shock.
Brandenburg represents a bit of X-factor after taking out ‘The Coast’ (1600m) at Gosford on May 8. He comes into this fourth up and might have scope for improvement out to the 2000m.
Doomben Cup Tips & Verdict
I find it hard to make a case for those outside of Zaaki, especially for those that come out of the Hollindale Stakes. The inclusions of Sir Dragonet and Mugatoo add another element but he should get the race run to suit. While they didn’t break the clock at the Gold Coast, Zaaki did go more than 11 lengths faster than standard at his previous run, which was over the 2000m at Randwick. It should also be noted that the Hollindale has produced 11 of the past 17 winners of this race. Look for him to camp on speed, which is often the place to be at Doomben if they don’t go hard early on.