Epsom Handicap Winning Trends

Adam Cusworth in Epsom Handicap 29 Sep 2020
Epsom Handicap trends

 

The Epsom Handicap (1600m) is one of the most famous races on the calendar in Australia and we take a look at the Epsom Handicap winning trends.

One of the oldest races on the Australian racing calendar, the famous Randwick mile is always one of the highlights of the Sydney spring. The Group 1 carries $1 million in prizemoney and usually attracts a capacity field of gallopers.

Top milers such as Happy Clapper, Theseo and Racing To Win are past winners while the best of them all, Winx, took out the Epsom in 2015.Last year’s winner was Kolding and the Chris Waller-trained galloper will be going for back to back wins in the event.

In analysing Epsom Handicap winning trends since the year 2000, it has generally been a tricky one for favourite backers. Kolding won as a $5.50 equal favourite with Te Akau Shark last year but since 2000, only Happy Clapper, Winx, Fat Al and Racing To Win have scored as the popular elect in that time period. The average price of the horses to have won the race since 2000 has been $10.35.

Nine of the 20 winners have started at single figure odds. Interestingly, eight of those have come in the last nine years. Hartnell is the odd one out, scoring at $20 in 2018.

In early markets with NEDS after the barrier draw, Star Of The Seas has been installed at the $6 quote ahead of Probabeel at $6.50. Funstar and Rock are at $10, while Mister Sea Wolf and Wild Planet are both at $14. Colette and Imaging are at $15, while Kolding ($16) and Vanna Girl ($17) head the rest.

The handicap conditions of the Epsom have seen horses with a variety of weights win the event. Hartnell, Happy Clapper, Winx and Racing To Win carried the highest weight of the winners since 2000 with 57kg each, whilst at the other end of the scale, Desert War carried just 50.5kg when he claimed the first of his Epsom wins in 2004. Kolding also won with that weight last year. This year, Kolding has been allotted 56.5kg and heads the weights from Mister Sea Wolf at 56kg. There are five runners with 50kg including Vanna Girl.

The average weight of the winning gallopers since 2000 is 54kg. Nettoyer, Brandenburg and Yulong Prince have that weight this year. The good news for fans of Kolding is that the four winners prior to him carried between 56kg and 57kg.

The Epsom almost always attracts a capacity field and front-runners, as well as backmarkers, generally get their chance in the race. Horses have come from a variety of barriers. 11 winners since 2000 have drawn double-digit barriers whilst nine have drawn single digit barriers. Interestingly, barrier’s 10 and 12 have been the places to be in recent times, with six of the past seven winners jumping from either of those two spots. Colette and Riodini occupy those spots this year.

Four-year-olds have dominated the Epsom since the year 2000 and have provided 12 of the 20 winners. Brandenburg, Probabeel, Funstar, Colette, Reloaded, Riodini, Vanna Girla and Just Thinkin’ are horses aged four this year.

Star Of The Seas is one of seven mares in the race this year. The girls have an average record in the Epsom with only Winx and Secret Admirer among the mares to have won the race since 2000.

Gai Waterhouse and Chris Waller have been the dominant forces in the Epsom since 2000. Waterhouse has trained six winners but none since Fat Al in 2012. Waller has won four of the seven edition’s since then.

Waller’s winners include Winx, He’s Your Man and Boban. This year he takes eight runners into the race and they are Kolding, Mister Sea Wolf, Star Of The Seas, Imaging, Yulong Prince, Funstar, Reloaded and Savacool.

Waterhouse combines with Adrian Bott and they have Riodini and the first emergency, Just Thinkin’.

The only multiple winning jockeys since 2000 have been Hugh Bowman, Blake Shinn and Glen Boss. Boss rode Kolding last year, while Bowman steered Hartnell to victory in 2018. This year, Boss has been booked to ride Funstar, while Bowman is on Kolding.

Finally, past Epsom winners have come out of a variety of races. Six winners had their previous start in the George Main Stakes (1600m), three have had their previous run in the Shannon Stakes (1500m), while a further three have come out of the Bill Ritchie Stakes (1400m), including Kolding last year. Two have jumped up in distance from the 1300m of the Theo Marks Stakes (1300m). 16 of the 20 winners since 2000 finished in the top four at their previous start. Six of those were last start winners.

This year, Kolding won the George Main ahead of Star Of The Seas, while Imaging was 3rd. Probabeel claimed the Bill Ritchie and Mister Sea Wolf was 3rd. Wild Planet took out the Theo Marks ahead of Funstar, while Riodini was runner-up in the Shannon Stakes .

Selections based Epsom Handicap winning trends:

There are a few in this that you could make a case for based on trends but to narrow it down we need to look for a Waller or Waterhouse four-year-old that comes out of the right race and isn’t a mare.

That leaves us with Reloaded and Riodini. Of that pair, Reloaded finished out of the top four at his last start, leaving us with Riodini, who has drawn barrier 12, which has been a great spot to be in recent times.

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