Flight Stakes Winning Trends

Adam Cusworth in Flight Stakes 30 Sep 2020
Flight Stakes trends

 

The Flight Stakes (1600m) is Sydney’s premier spring race for the three-year-old fillies and we take a look at the Flight Stakes winning trends.

One of three Group 1 races scheduled for Randwick on Saturday, the Flight Stakes has been won by some superstars of the turf with the likes of More Joyous, Unworldly and Sunline gracing the honour roll.

Recent winners include the 2019 winner, Funstar, while Oohood broke through to claim Group 1 glory in 2018. In 2017 it was Alizee, while in 2016 it was Global Glamour that held on to defeat the eventual Cox Plate (2040m) placegetter, Yankee Rose, in 2016. The latter filly was later disqualified due to a positive swab.

In analysing the Flight Stakes winning trends since the year 2000, there are a few things to keep in mind when trying to pick a winner.

Favourites have a solid record in in that time period, winning 10 of the 19 editions of the race since 2000. Five of those of those have started as ‘odds-on’ including Funstar last year at $1.75 as well as Guelph ($1.30 in 2013) and the ill-fated Unworldly ($1.25 in 2000).

Only four gallopers have saluted at odds of $6 or above and they were Oohood ($14 in 2018), Unearthly ($9 in 2003), Secret Admirer ($17 in 2010) and Royal Purler ($31 in 2002). The average price of the winning gallopers since 2000 is $6.

This year, a field of just seven have accepted for the $500,000 race and it is Hungry Heart at $2.45 and Dame Giselle at $2.50 that are vying for favouritism in early markets with ladbrokes. Montefilla is at $8, while Vangelic and Joviality are $11. Miravelle is at $12, while Alighted is the rank outsider at $201.

Chris Waller trains Hungry Heart and Joviality and won the Flight for the first time last year, courtesy of Funstar. Gai Waterhouse has had seven winners since 2000 and takes Vangelic into the race. The Snowden’s train Dame Giselle and had success with Geulph in 2013.

Of the jockeys, James McDonald will be going for back to back wins after riding Funstar last year. He is on Hungry Heart. Kerrin McEvoy had success aboard Guelph in 2013 and this year he rides Joviality. Hugh Bowman has won this race on four occasions and rides Montefila. Tommy Berry rode Speak Fondly in 2015 and he rides Dame Giselle.

With the small field means, barriers shouldn’t come into play too much. 11 of the 19 winners since 2000 have drawn between barrier’s 1-5, while a further five have drawn in the two outermost positions.

In terms of lead up form, the Tea Rose Stakes (1400m) is the obvious reference for the Flight and that race has provided 16 of the past 19 winners of the Flight Stakes. 10 of those 16 have completed the double including Funstar, First Seal and Guelph. Three were runner-up in the Tea Rose, while a further three were unplaced.

Last year, Funstar claimed the Tea Rose in narrow fashion from Probabeel. This year, Dame Giselle defeated Hungry Heart, while Vangelic was 3rd.

Selection according to the Flight Stakes winning trends:

Dame Giselle is a clear top pick when you factor in the history of the Flight Stakes from the year 2000.

 

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