Futurity Stakes Tips: Who history points to winning
The Futurity Stakes (1400m) is one of three Group 1 races at Caulfield this weekend and has been won in the past by some star gallopers, including Typhoon Tracy (2010), Reset (2004) and Manikato, who won the race on four occasions from 1979 to 1983.
The $500,000 weight-for-age race has been a great one for punters in recent times with seven of the past nine favourites saluting in the race and if we delve deeper into the records there are few more things to consider when picking a winner.
In analysing the trends of the race since the year 2000 we see that the average price of the winners in the Futurity has been a very low $4.40, making it one of the best races for favourite backers. 12 of the 20 winners since 2000 have started as the popular elect and 14 have started at odds of $5 or below. Black Heart Bart (2017), All Too Hard (2013), More Joyous (2011), Typhoon Tracy (2010) all started at ‘odds-on’, while Suavito (2015) is the longest priced winner at $10. Alizee won at $2.80 last year.
This year, the favourites in early markets with ladbrokes are Super Seth and Melody Belle at the $2.80 quote. The 2019 Epsom (1600m) winner, Kolding, is at $3.40. History suggests the winner will come out of one of these three.
Black Heart Bart will be going for his second win in the race and is at $21 alongside Wild Planet, while Streets Of Avalon ($26), Cape Of Good Hope ($27) and Kazio ($126) head the rest.
The Orr Stakes has generally been the ideal lead up to the Futurity in recent times. 13 of the past 20 winners have come out of the Group 1 that is run at Caulfield prior to the Futurity, however, none of this year’s field took part in that race this year.
Alizee raced in the Expressway Stakes (1200m) in Sydney before winning last year. Kolding was 4th in that race behind Standout recently. A feature of this year’s version of the race is the presence of Super Seth, who is three-year-old. The youngsters enjoyed a purple patch earlier this milennium, winning the race in five straight years from 2000 to 2004. Desert Sky and Mr Murphy provided a dead heat in 2001.
All Too Hard (2013) was another youngster to claim the Futurity meaning that the three-year-olds have had a successful time of it, however, four-year-olds have won five of the past nine.
Of the other runners this year, Kolding, Wild Planet and Cape Of Good Hope are four. Melody Belle is the only mare in the race and the girls have won three of the last nine editions. Those drawn in the second half of the field have had the advantage in this race, providing 11 of the 20 of the winners. Holding, Kazio, Streets Of Avalon and Black Heart Bart have drawn the outer four barriers in the eight horse field.
Successful trainers in the race include Darren Weir, David Hayes, Gai Waterhouse and Peter Moody, with that trio accounting for nine of the past 19 winners. Hayes has Cape Of Good Hope this year. Of the hoops, Damien Oliver, Luke Nolen, Nash Rawiler, Craig Williams and the retired Darren Gauci are all multiple winners since 2000. This year, Oliver rides Cape Of Good Hope.
Prediction according to trends
Very hard to split the first three on the market on trends, but Super Seth gets the nod. Just.