Futurity Stakes Tips & Preview
Looking for Futurity Stakes tips? Our form analyst previews the 1400m Caulfield feature and gives his top predictions.
Our 2022 Futurity Stakes tips will be available following the barrier draw. See below for our 2021 preview:
Futurity Stakes Tips & Preview
The fast surface alone will suit some better than others, and seven of the 10 runners being first or second-up, fitness will also play its part.
As far as peak benchmark (BM) figures go, four horses stand out above the rest, and while Arcadia Queen only rates a couple of lengths below that quartet, her best is over 1800m and she generally takes a couple of runs to reach that peak.
The four horses in question are: So Si Bon, Mr Quickie, Streets Of Avalon and Behemoth.
They have recorded PBs of 17.6, 15.9, 15.2 and 14.2 lengths quicker than standard BM respectively, and all bar Mr Quickie (1600m PB) did it over 1400m.
Behemoth won the Memsie Stakes (1400m) second-up last campaign and defeated Mr Quickie by 1.4 lengths while So Si Bon (2.45 lengths) and Streets Of Avalon (5.75 lengths) were further back.
Behemoth got the gun run and won impressively, Mr Quickie got too far back and closed strongly without threatening and Streets Of Avalon was caught four deep without cover and did way too much work early.
We need to consider all of this in Saturday’s rematch instead of just assuming Behemoth will be too good for them again.
Behemoth has drawn ideally in barrier 2 and should get a similar run to what he had in the Memsie but he really lacked early speed first-up going nine lengths slower than standard.
If he goes that slow early again, he’s likely to end up behind a wall of horses and will need a bit of magic from Damien Oliver to weave a path to victory.
Streets Of Avalon has become a real favourite of mine as I’ve tipped him in two Group 1 races and he’s won both at $26 & $10.
He generally peaks third-up and has a clear fitness advantage on the majority of the field, and if he can settle behind Too Close The Sun, loom up on the bend and take over early in the straight, he’s the one to run down again.
He loves a Good 3 at Caulfield and his figures last start (12.7 lengths quicker than BM) are the best last start figures in the field.
Mr Quickie will have his fans and also gets the flying Jamie Kah aboard, but he’s too hard to catch and simply mixes his form too much to put trust in him.
Having said all of that, I don’t think the winner comes from the top rating quartet I mentioned earlier.
The Tom Dabernig and Ben Hayes-trained Crosshaven is my top pick.
If you watched his replay behind Streets Of Avalon last start, there is no way you could suggest he’ll turn the tables on Shane Nichols’ tough Magnus gelding.
However, Crosshaven’s peak pattern suggests otherwise.
The son of Smart Missile improved his BM performance by 8.1 lengths second-up in his first campaign, and then after a 10-week break he improved 6.8 lengths second-up next time.
This horse clearly takes a ton of improvement from his first run, and first-up this time he ran a PB of 10.3 lengths quicker than standard.
His average second-up improvement is 7.5 lengths, and even if he improves by four to five lengths second-up this time, he’s the likely winner.
His two highest rating performances where on Good 3 tracks at Caulfield over 1400m so he gets track and conditions to suit.
My speed map has him landing behind Too Close The Sun and Streets Of Avalon, and that spot should be the sweet spot in a race like this.
Blinkers go on for the first time which could backfire if he doesn’t jump cleanly, but if he does, look out.
Jockey Daniel Stackhouse gets the chance to break his Group 1 duck, and what a story that will be on the day.
I don’t want to tip against the gutsy Streets Of Avalon, but I have to follow the numbers which lead to Crosshaven on top in my Futurity Stakes tips.