George Main Stakes Tips & Preview
Looking for George Main Stakes Tips on Saturday September 19? Our form expert previews the Randwick Group 1 and gives his best bets.
George Main Stakes Preview
A small but cracking field of seven to contest Saturday’s $500,000 George Main Stakes (1600m) at Royal Randwick.
And while finding the winner of a Group 1 race is never an easy feat, the 2020 renewal of the George Main does look quite straightforward to dissect.
Three horses come through the Winx Stakes (1400m) with Verry Elleegant, Star Of The Seas and Imaging finishing 1st, 2nd and 4th respectively.
Avilius comes via the Chelmsford Stakes (1600m) and Dreamforce, Kolding and Colette were 1st, 2nd and 10th in the Tramway Stakes (1400m).
Verry Elleegant won the Winx Stakes in 1:23.26 on a Soft 6 and Dreamforce ran a much quicker 1:21.84 on a Good 4 to win the Tramway.
However, on BM rating performances that take into account track conditions, wind speed, ground covered etc, Verry Elleegant’s performance of 12 lengths quicker than standard BM rates much higher than Dreamforce who rated 5.5 lengths quicker than BM.
Who will take the next step?
In Dreamforce’s past seven campaigns, six of his third-up efforts where on par with his second-up effort, and as mentioned, second-up this time in, he went 5.5 lengths quicker than standard BM.
If he continues his traditional pattern, he’ll run between five and six lengths above standard and that puts him six lengths from Verry Elleegant, Star Of The Seas and Imaging on their last start efforts.
Also, Fierce Impact was 3rd in the Winx Stakes and has already franked the form with a win in the Group 1 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) at Flemington last Saturday.
Considering Dreamforce is a $5.50 chance compared to Star Of The Seas ($8.50) and Imaging ($9), I think he looks under the odds.
Star Of The Seas has actually gone backward in his last two second-up runs before spiking third-up, and I think he’ll do the same here so I’m keen to wait for him next time.
Imaging was unlucky not to win last time after being held up multiple times in the straight, but he had a fitness advantage being second-up, and again, he has decreased his BM rating in his past four campaigns.
Avilius is another that has decreased his BM rating in his past three preparations, and after going 6.4 lengths quicker than standard first-up, I can’t see him winning here.
Colette had her chance to beat Dreamforce but weakened late and is looking for more ground – need to see here again.
Kolding on the other hand looms as a big danger and his peak pattern suggests this is his race to win.
In his last two campaigns, Kolding ran PBs third-up going 14.3 and 12.7 lengths above standard as he stepped up from 1400m to 1600m.
He couldn’t bridge the gap on Dreamforce last time, but as I’m expecting Dreamforce to decrease his rating here while Kolding peaks and improves by around five to six lengths, I’m confident he’s over the odds at $13 to Win and $4.60 to Place.
Note: there will only be two Place dividends paid with seven runners in the race.
Who will win the George Mains Stakes?
While I think Kolding is an outstanding chance in this race and also think the bookmakers have his price completely wrong, I can’t go past Verry Elleegant.
I was happy to risk her first-up as her previous first-up figures weren’t good enough to win, but she produced her best ever first-up run and scored despite being stuck deep without cover for the trip.
That tells me she has simply come back bigger and better than ever, and she can go all the way this campaign.
She improved second-up in three of her four campaigns, with the only exception being this race last year when she was caught three deep without cover and overraced the entire way.
Chris Waller has done a great job getting the daughter of Zed to settle, and if she lobs in behind them and settles, they won’t be able to hold her out in the straight.