Golden Rose Stakes Tips & Preview
Looking for Golden Rose Stakes Tips on Saturday, September 25? Our form expert previews the Rosehill Group 1 and gives his best bets for the race.
Golden Rose Stakes Preview
Saturday’s Golden Rose Stakes (1400m) at Rosehill Gardens sees six of the nine runners come through last fortnight’s Run To The Rose (1200m) at the same track.
Rothfire was a dominant winner from the fast finishing Ole Kirk, and that pair really stood out above the rest.
In my opinion, North Pacific had the run of the race in 4th with cover, and he should have been best suited by the hot tempo and perfect trailing position with fitness on his side being third-up.
He finished in 3rd and it’s hard to see him turning the tables here.
Likewise, Peltzer enjoyed a good run and was passed by North Pacific so I’m willing to risk Peltzer also.
Mamaragan didn’t do enough and neither did King’s Legacy, so it’s impossible to suggest either of that pair can topple Rothfire if he runs up to his first-up effort.
Originally, I was considering King’s Legacy because he seemed to improve out of sight second-up last campaign, but his benchmark (BM) figures suggest otherwise.
King’s Legacy finished 9th in the Golden Slipper (1200m) and then went back-to-back taking out the Inglis Sires’ (1400m) and Champagne Stakes (1600m) where he first defeated Mamaragan and Ole Kirk and again beat Ole Kirk home.
However, he went 3.2 lengths quicker than standard BM in the Slipper but only went 2.4 and 1.2 lengths quicker than BM when winning his next two.
So, while it looked as he had improved in those races, he may have just been facing weaker opposition.
Who will win the Golden Rose Stakes in 2021?
It’s hard to go past the Robert Heathcote-trained Rothfire who has now won seven from eight with his only defeat being a 2nd placing behind the speedy Kisukano on a Soft 7.
Before his first-up win in the Run To The Rose, his previous PB was when stepping up to 1400m in the Group 1 JJ Atkins (1400m) where he defeated Gotta Kiss by 3.3 lengths and ran 7.8 lengths quicker than BM.
He was forced to work early and sit outside the leader, but he finished off strong and ran 1:21.06 which rated three lengths slower than the Stradbroke Handicap which was won in 1:20.43.
The first eight horses home in the Stradbroke carried 53kg or less and Rothfire carried 57kg.
Trekking was beaten 2.7 lengths in the Stradbroke with 58kg and Kementari was beaten 4.8 lengths with 55.5kg on his back, so you could argue Rothfire, as a two-year-old, ran just below Trekking and outperformed Kementari.
Rothfire went to a new level in the Run To The Rose and recorded a BM figure that was 13 lengths quicker than standard.
He improved in each of his three second-up runs, including his JJ Atkins win, and if he can improve off his first-up run again, I can’t see anything beating him.
As far as the speed map goes, Rothfire should have no problem coming across from barrier 8 and taking up the running or sitting just off Yardstick if he opts to use his speed and go forward.
Rosehill is currently rated a Good 4 (as of Wednesday September 23), and with the possibility of light rain on Friday, the track should stay around that rating.
Who looms as the biggest danger to Rothfire?
Ole Kirk certainly had the flashing light on his head charging home from the rear in the Run To The Rose and he may attract some money.
However, he has a habit of doing this, and the sectionals out of that race still favour Rothfire.
Ole Kirk ran his final 600m and 400m 0.6 of a second quicker than Rothfire but was only 0.3 of a second quicker over the final 200m.
Rothfire was also first-up and open to plenty of improvement while Ole Kirk was second-up and had a fitness advantage.
Those figures, and the benefit of fitness suggest Rothfire will be better suited stepping up to 1400m on Saturday.
Chris Waller’s Global Quest is an interesting runner as he drops back in trip having finished runner-up in the Dulcify Stakes (1500m) first-up.
He lacked that killer punch at the end of the Dulcify, and a slight drop back in trip as well as added fitness could see him become the big improver and lay down a challenge.
I have Ole Kirk and Global Quest in for the placings, but I can’t see either toppling the outstanding Rothfire.