Golden Slipper Tips and Preview
Looking for expert Golden Slipper tips? Our form analyst previews the Rosehill 2YO showpiece and gives his best bets for the race.
GOLDEN SLIPPER PREVIEW
There are nine different form lines to consider heading into the 2020 Golden Slipper, but interestingly, every horse competed over 1200m at their most recent start which leaves no guessing as to who will get the trip.
Of the lead-up races, the Blue Diamond rated highest (11 lengths quicker than standard BM) due to its fast early tempo, however, Blue Diamond winner Tagaloa was subsequently 2nd to Farnan in the Todman Stakes which rated 7.2 length quicker than BM.
Farnan posted a career best BM performance (-9.0L) in the Silver Slipper (1100m) at Rosehill, and he must be respected on those figures.
Farnan ran a very slick 1:09.86 on a Soft 7 in the Todman, and considering his overall time and final 600m was roughly four lengths quicker than Dame Giselle in the following event (Reisling Stakes), I’m inclined to dismiss Dame Giselle and the placegetters, See you Soon and Mildred, as leading chances in the Slipper.
With the right run, Tagaloa could turn the tables on Farnan, but the other Todman runner, Global Quest, had his chance and I’m putting the pen through him too.
Mamaragan and Hungry Heart are the only other two to have raced over 1200m at Randwick last start, and while they ran slightly quicker time than Farnan, they did it on a Good 4 as opposed to a Soft 7.
Mamaragan and Hungry Heart potentially have more upside to them also which leaves the door open as they both get onto a Soft to Heavy track for the first time.
WHO HANDLES THE WET?
As far as proven runners on the wet go, Farnan is a front-runner with two wins on Soft 7-rated tracks at his past two starts.
Tagaloa ran on well in his only start on a Soft track, Prague has won two from two on Soft going, Global Quest won on a Soft 6, Dame Giselle won on a Soft 7 last start – but as mentioned earlier, I’m keen to overlook the trio out of the Reisling.
Cellsabeel and Thermosphere are the only two runners to have won on Heavy going, and while Thermosphere’s effort was a narrow win in a maiden, Cellsabeel won on a Heavy 8 at Rosehill by six lengths and is likely to get similar conditions on Saturday.
Cellsabeel’s effort was a clear personal best going 8.5 lengths quicker than BM, and while she was comprehensively beaten by Farnan in the Sliver Slipper following a five-week break, she bounced back in the Black Opal where she was a bit unlucky.
If Rosehill is Heavy on Saturday, Cellsabeel is one that should be finishing hard while others flounder in the going.
GOLDEN SLIPPER VERDICT AND BEST BETS
Farnan does look hard to beat and he’s by Not A Single Doubt so a Heavy track should suit.
Mamaragan has plenty of upside and could surprise here but I’m worried about a wet track for him with no wet-track breeding.
Away Game has the right form lines but is untried on rain-affected going, however, she’s by Snitzel and out of Elusive Wonder whose sire Elusive Quality produced outstanding Golden Slipper winner Sepoy.
Cellsabeel has the Heavy track form but can we excuse the fact she finished 6.5 lengths from Farnan on a Soft 7.
As far as the speed map goes, I think Farnan has to come across and lead from barrier 14, unless Away Game kicks up and holds the front.
Away Game showed the greatest early speed last start going 7.9 lengths quicker than standard to the 600m, and she may try and kick up and hold Farnan out.
However, I don’t think that’s Glen Boss’ style in a big race, and I can see him taking a sit right behind Farnan which should then give Away Game the run of the race.
She was caught four deep without cover in the Blue Diamond, and although she looked gone as she wobbled around the Caulfield bend, she surged again late to finish 1.3 lengths from Tagaloa.
I think she can improve again back on her Sydney leg, and Away Game is at the top of my Golden Slipper Tips for 2020.
2020 Golden Slipper Tips: