Golden Slipper Tips: Who history points to winning
- Which horse do the long term trends point towards in the Golden Slipper?
The Golden Slipper is always one of the major highlights of racing in Sydney during the autumn and has been won by some champion gallopers in the past, including Todman, Vain and Manikato. Recent winners include Pierro (2012) and Sepoy (2011), while Kiamichi took out the race in 2019.
This year, Tagaloa is the slight favourite in early markets with sportsbet following the barrier draw and if we analyse the recent trends of the race since the year 2000 we see that it has been a mixed one for favoured runners. Cosmic Force, Written By, Houtzen and Extreme Choice have all gone down as the popular elect in recent years, however, nine of the past 10 winners have all scored at single figure odds.
They include the 2018 winner, Estijaab, who jumped as an $8.50 pop, while She Will Reign and Capitalist both scored at $8.Vancouver ($2.50 in 2015), Overreach ($2.75 in 2013) and Sepoy ($2.75 in 2011) are favourites that have won in the past 10 years. Last year, Kiamichi won as a $26 chance. She joined Phelan Ready as the highest priced winner of the $3.5 million scamper. That horse also scored as a $26 pop in 2009.
The Slipper was once a graveyard for favourites until Sebring broke through at $6 in 2008. That performance ended a 29-year run of outs for favourites in the race. The average price of the winning horses since the year 2000 has been $9.50. Other contenders at single figure odds with sportsbet this year include Farnan at $5.50 and Hanseatic at $6. Dame Giselle is on the next line of betting at $10 while the likes of Prague and See You Soon (both $13) head the rest.
The ideal lead up form has been for horses to have their last start in either the Todman Stakes (1200m) for the colts and geldings or the Reisling Stakes (1200m) for the fillies.
In the last 11 years, five winners of the Golden Slipper have come out of the Todman, while seven of the past 20 winners have come out of the Reisling, including two of the last three in Estijaab and She Will Reign. This year, Farnan claimed the Todman Stakes from Tagaloa. The Reisling was won by Dame Giselle from See You Soon and Mildred.
Prague won the Pago Pago Stakes (1200m), the same lead up as Stratum in 2005. Last year, Kiamichi claimed the Magic Night Stakes (1200m). Thermosphere will be out to emulate her stablemate this year and won that race last weekend. The past 12 Golden Slipper winners have finished in the top two at their previous start.
Hanseatic comes off a runner-up performance in the Blue Diamond (1200m) at Caulfield. Sepoy is a winner of the Golden Slipper that ran in the Blue Diamond but contenders usually have another run in between. Crystal Lily and Miss Finland are other Golden Slipper winners to have raced in the Blue Diamond then had their final lead up race in Sydney.
Sepoy completed the double in 2011 but came off a loss in the Todman Stakes (1200m) before claiming victory in the Slipper. A feature of this year’s field is that there are nine fillies in the field of 16, while three of the four emergencies are also of the fairer sex. There are seven colts, as well as one of the emergencies in Rathlin.
Since the year 2000, fillies have had the upper hand in the Slipper, winning the race on 12 occasions, while six winners have been colts and two have been geldings. The leading fillies this year include Dame Giselle and See You Soon.
Barriers can play a decisive role in determining the outcome of a Golden Slipper but it is interesting to note that five of the past six have won from double digit draws. With luck in running, the likes of Farnan (barrier 14) and Mildred (barrier 17) can feature. That duo are likely to come in a few slots after the removal of emergencies.
The most successful gate to jump from since the year 2000 has been barrier 1 with four winners. This year, Mamargan has drawn the pole. Of the trainers, James Cummings is a recent winner and claimed the quinella last year. The Godolphin helmsman only has Thermosphere this year. The Peter and Paul Snowden combination have also had recent success and take King’s Legacy and Dame Giselle into the race.
Gai Waterhouse has an amazing record in the race and has saddled up six winners this millennium. Along with co-trainer Adrian Bott, Gai takes Farnan into the race this year.
There are a number of Victorian based trainers with horses in the race but Rosehill has generally not been a happy hunting ground for those from south of the border.
While the Matthew Ellerton and Simon Zahra stable won the event in 2010 with Crystal Lily, Mick Price has since missed out with the race favourite in 2016, Extreme Choice, as well as in 2012, when his star filly, Samaready, went down as favourite. Bel Esprit (2002) and Alinghi (2004) are among other big-name Victorians to have also gone down in the Golden Slipper since 2000.
Successful jockeys in the race since 2000 include Lenny Beasley and Tommy Berry with two winners apiece. McDonald rides Hungry Heart this year. Damian Lane claimed victory last year and rides King’s Legacy.
Selection based on trends
Farnan is a clear top pick on trends. He comes out of the right lead up and meets the criteria of finishing in the top two at his previous start. Wide barriers haven’t been a problem in recent years in the Slipper, while his trainer has an amazing record in the race.