JJ Atkins Tips & Preview
JJ ATKINS TIPS & PREVIEW
Looking for JJ Atkins Stakes tips and best bets? We dissect times and form to find the winner of the 2022 JJ Atkins Stakes at Eagle Farm.
Tips will be available following the barrier draw. See our 2021 preview below for an example of what to expect.
The late season two-year-olds get their shot at Group 1 glory in the JJ Atkins Stakes and it is Converge (Best odds $3.60 with NEDS) that heads markets with NEDS after the barrier draw at the $3.60 quote ahead of Port Louis at $4.60 and Tiger Of Malay at $6. Ranch Hand is at $12, while Cape Breton and Overpass head the rest at the $15.
Nine runners out of the field of 14 had their last runs in the BRC Sires Produce Stakes (1400m) that was held at Eagle Farm on May 29.
In that race, Tiger Of Malay scored as a $17 chance, while Converge ran on from the tail to just miss out. Port Louis also came from well back to run 3rd, while Overpass was 4th.
Converge really got going late in that race and is one that should be suited by the step up to the 1600m. He produced the fastest last 200m and is a proven performer over the mile, winning the Fernhill Stakes over the trip at Randwick three starts ago before placing 3rd in the Group 1 Champagne Stakes (1600m).
Port Louis was 5th in the Champagne Stakes and recorded the fastest 400m-200m split in the recent BRC Sires and second fastest last 400m.
The winner, Tiger Of Malay, sat just forward of midfield and went for home with 200m to go before holding on. He went 2.6 lengths faster than standard benchmark, which are the best last start figures of any runner in this race.
Converge went 5.4 lengths faster than standard when placing in the Champagne Stakes. They are the best figures that any runner in this race has ever produced.
Is there one that finished further back in the Sires that can make up the required ground? Giannis (5th), Subterranean (8th), Invisible Tears (9th), Ranch Hand (11th) and Dark Rebel (17th) were the rest of the beaten brigade that will be in action.
Subterranean was caught wide before going down by four lengths. He as a winner of the Group 3 Ken Russell Memorial (1200m) prior to that. Giannis was also wide but just seemed to lack the dash at the business end.
I suspect the winner comes from the BRC Sires Produce but there are a number of last start winners that come out of separate races. Volcanic Rock went 0.3 lengths faster than standard when taking out The Phoenix (1500m), a Listed race at Eagle Farm last Saturday. He will need to improve that figure but was just second up that day and has the Waterhouse/Bott polish.
Overmann defeated that horse at Rosehill three weeks ago and has attracted support in the early betting. Blushing Tycoon comes up from Victoria and led all the way at Flemington last time. Cape Breton faces a big rise in class but is unbeaten in his two runs, while he is one of three contenders in the race for Chris Waller.
Waller has saddled up the winner three times in this race, most recently with The Autumn Sun in 2019.
Tiger Of Malay will be ridden by Craig Williams, who has won two of five when combining with Richard and Michael Freedman. Josh Parr has a 20% winning strike rate for Bjorn Baker, providing a 26.2% profit on turnover. They team up with Port Louis.
JJ Atkins Tips & Verdict
It is hard to go past CONVERGE (Best odds $3.60 with NEDS) for this race. The son of Frankel should settle a bit closer this time around after drawing barrier 15 in the recent Sires. This time around, he has drawn barrier 5 and is likely to land in a midfield spot or better. He is one of the proven performers at the 1600m and has the right lead up form. Unless one of the other youngsters that comes out of separate lead up can produce a big personal best, Waterhouse can land her first JJ Atkins since enjoying success with Almalad in 2014.