Kennedy Cantala Winning Trends

Kennedy Cantala trends

 

The Kennedy Cantala (1600m) pits the milers up against one another for Group 1 glory and and we take a look at the Kennedy Cantala winning trends.

The $1.5 million race was formerly run on the last day of the Flemington carnival but is now one of four Group 1 races on Derby Day. The rebranded event has thrown up plenty of surprise results in recent times and if we take a look at the Kennedy Cantala winning trends since the year 2000, there are a few things that you should consider.

The race has been a bit of a roughies paradise as only three horses have won as favourite since 2000 and they were Boban in 2013, Wall Street in 2010 and Divine Madonna in 2008. The likes of So You Think, Weekend Hussler and Shoyun Lodge have all gone down as favourites in this race.

13 of the 20 winners since 2000 have scored at odds of $10 or above, including Shillelagh at $12 in 2017 and Le Romain at $15 in 2018. Tears I Cry scored at $101 in 2007, while Sky Cuddle won at $51 in 2004. The average price of the winners has been a very healthy $20.

This year, the market sees Mr Quickie as the favourite with Sportsbet at the $5 quote, while Buffalo River is at $8.50. Rock is at $11 ahead of Fifty Stars at $12, while Yulong Prince and Nonconformist are at $13. Cascadian is a $16 chance while the likes of Cascadian ($19), Best Of Days ($21) and Age Of Chivalry ($21) are near that long term average.

The Kennedy Cantala used to come at the end of a gruelling weeklong carnival. This, combined with the handicap conditions of the race may be some of the reasons behind the big upsets over the years. The average weight of the winning horses since 2000 has been 54kg. I Am Superman, Rock and Streets Of Avalon carry that mark this year.

For fans of Mr Quickie and Fifty Stars, who have both been allocated 58kg, we go back to 2012 when Happy Trails won with that weight. All other winners of the Kennedy Cantala since 2000 have carried less, except for Testa Rossa, who carted 59kg in 2000.

The Flemington mile usually attracts a full field of 16 gallopers and horses to draw single figure barriers have tended to do better than those drawn outside. 14 of the 20 winners have come from barriers 1-9. I Am Superman and Rock are among those that have single digits.

Barriers 1, 3 and 9 have produced multiple winners since 2000 and this year I Am Superman, Chief Ironside and Buffalo River are in those spots. The latter might come into barrier 7 after the removal of the emergency runners.

The most successful age group since 2000 has been the four-year-olds with 10 winners, while there have been six winners aged five. The only winners to have not belonged to those age groups were Fierce Impact last year, Wall Street, Albert The Fat in 2011 and Shillelagh.

Of this year’s field Nonconformist and the fourth emergency, Reloaded, are four, while Mr Quickie, Wild Planet, I Am Superman, Rock, The Velvet King, Age Of Chivalry, Buffalo River and Junipal are five.

For those considering backing Kings Legacy, who is the sole three-year-old in the field, keep in mind that no horse aged three has won this race since 2000. So You Think missed out as a $2 favourite in 2009 just a fortnight after winning the Cox Plate.

Since 2000, the Kennedy Cantala has been shared by a variety of trainers and Chris Waller is the only to have saddled up mulitple winners in that time period. He trained Shillelagh to victory in 2017, while Boban in 2013 and Albert The Fat in 2011 are his other winners. This year, Waller’s runners are Olmedo, Yulong Prince and Reloaded. The only multiple winning jockey since 2000 is Craig Williams and he rides Buffalo River.

One of the key lead up races for the Kennedy Mile was always the Moonee Valley Crystal Mile (1600m) but with the event being brought forward a week, consider gallopers to have come out of the Moonga Stakes (1400m) and the Toorak Handicap (1600m) as well.

Mr Quickie took out the Toorak this year from Buffalo River. Wild Planet won the Moonga, while Fifty Stars was 3rd. Age Of Chivalry backs up after finishing runner-up in the Crystal Mile. 12 of the past 20 Cantala Stakes winners won or were placed at their previous start.

Of this years field, Mr Quickie, Wild Planet and Nonconformist are last start winners, while Fifty Stars, Age Of Chivalry and Buffalo River were placed.

Selection based on the Kennedy Cantala winning trends:

Age Of Chivalry ticks the most boxes on trends.

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