VRC Kennedy Oaks Winning Trends

Adam Cusworth in VRC Kennedy Oaks 3 Nov 2020
VRC Kennedy Oaks trends

 

The VRC Kennedy Oaks (2500m) sees the staying fillies line up for Group 1 glory and we take a look at the VRC Kennedy Oaks winning trends.

The 2500m feature is one of the oldest races on the Australian racing calendar and brings together the best of the early season staying fillies. The $1 million race has been won in the past by some guns such as Jameka in 2015, Samantha Miss in 2008 and Miss Finland in 2006.

The 2019 edition of the race was taken out by Miami Bound. This year, it is the Sydney filly, Montefilia, that dominates early markets with sportsbet at the $1.75 quote while the the Wakeful Stakes (2000m) runner-up horse, Personal, is at $6. Miravelle is at $7.50, while Tyche Goddess heads the rest at $16.

If we take a look at the VRC Kennedy Oaks winning trends since the year 2000, there are a few things to consider when trying to find a winner and whether to not to back the favourite or a roughie.

The last six favourites have all missed out in the Oaks and we need to go back to Kirramosa, who scored as a $2.80 chance in 2013. Aloisia missed out at $1.80 in 2017 behind Pinot, while in 2016, Yankee Rose started odds on but it was the $101 shot Lasqueti Spirit that stole the show, leading from start to finish.

Since 2000, four horses have started below $2 and of those, Faint Perfume and Samantha Miss were able to get the job done. 11 have started between $2 and $3 and seven have been able to win. A total of nine of the 20 favourites have won since 2000 and 17 of the 20 winners have paid $7.50 or below.

Since the year 2000, the average price of the winners has been $10 but take Lasqueti Spirit out of the equation and that figure drops to $5.30. Outside of Lasqueti Spirit, only two other horses have won at double figure odds. They were Bulla Borghese in 2002 and Lovelorn in 2000.

For fans of Personal, Tyche Goddess and Miravelle, who finished runner-up, 3rd and 4th behind Victoria Quay in the Wakeful Stakes last Saturday, that race has been the tried and true final lead up to the Oaks over the journey.

Since 2000, 12 horses have had their final lead up in that race, including Miami Bound and Aristia in the last two years. No filly has come to of the Spring Champion to win the Oaks, although not many have tried. Lasqueti Spirit is the only horse since 2000 that had her previous start in Sydney. Yankee Rose won the Spring Champion in 2016 before placing 3rd in the Cox Plate (2040m). The tough spring told in the end as she failed badly at Flemington in the Oaks.

Another key lead up is the Ethereal Stakes. Two of the past six winners of the Oaks have used the Caulfield 2000m race as their final lead in. Runners to come out of that race this year, include Star Of Eden (3rd) and Cafe Rizu (7th)

Horses to have drawn in the first half of the field have tended to do better in the Oaks than those drawn outside. With the 2500m start at Flemington, horses usually jostle to find a position so they are not caught out wide on the first turn. Barriers 1-7 have accounted for 15 of the past 20 winners, with barrier 2 and 7 the most successful, providing four winners each. Biarchi, Star Of Eden, Tyche Goddess, Yatton, Montefilia, Miravelle and Vilanculos have drawn those spots this year.

The most successful trainers in the race since the year 2000 have been Ciaron Maher, Bart Cummings and Lee Freedman with two winners apiece but none have a runner this year. Of the hoops, Damien Oliver, Hugh Bowman and Craig Williams have won the Oaks on multiple occasions since 2000. This year Oliver rides Personal, Williams is on Miravelle and Bowman rides Montefilia.

Selections based on the VRC Kennedy Oaks trends

On trends it is very hard to split Personal and Miravelle.

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