Makybe Diva Stakes Winning Trends
The Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) is a Group 1 race at Flemington that has been taken out by some big names in the past and we take a look at the Makybe Diva Stakes winning trends.
The Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) was elevated to Group 1 status in 2013 and its honour roll contains some big names that have gone on to taste major success. The Flemington mile race is a traditional lead up to the big spring carnival features and has been won in recent years by Gatting (2019), Grunt (2018) and Humidor (2017).
Weekend Hussler is a notable winner of the Makybe, saluting in 2008, while Northerly claimed victory back in 2002 when the race was formerly known as the Craiglee Stakes. The ‘fighting tiger’ then went on to capture the Caulfield Cup (2400m) and Cox Plate (2040) in the same season.
Using the results of the Makybe Diva Stakes since the year 2000 as a guide, the race has generally been a mixed one for favourites as only three popular elects have won in that time period, while the 2019 version of the race saw the winner, Gatting, score at the massive odds of $101, edging out the $2.05 favourite, Mystic Journey. Dissident (2.75 in 2014), Weekend Hussler ($1.90 in 2008) and Northerly ($2.40 in 2002) are the only outright favourites to win in the last 20 years.
The average winning price since 2000 has been a healthy $15. Take Gatting out of the equation and that price drops to $10.50. 12 winners have paid single figure odds. Marasco was successful as a $2.75 chance in 2007 but was just shaded for favouritism by Apache Cat, while Southern Speed went around at $4.60 in 2012. Fawkner won at $4.60 in 2015, while Palentino saluted as a $9 chance in 2016.
While none have matched Gatting, other longshot winners since 2000 have been Littorio at $41 in 2011, while Foreteller pipped Puissance De Lune in 2013 at $15. In 2017, Humidor won as a $17 chance, thrashing the likes of Hartnell, who finished runner-up as a $1.70 favourite.
In early markets with sportsbet after the barrier draw for this year’s edition, Russian Camelot is a $3.50 favourite, while Fierce Impact is at $5.50. Perfect Jewel is at $6, ahead of Dalasan ($9) and Kings Will Dream at $10. Master Of Wine heads the rest at $13.
Russian Camelot resumes after an autumn campaign that saw him claim the South Australian Derby (2500m). Five horses have won the Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m) when resuming and the most recent of those was Fawkner in 2015.
The Memsie Stakes (1400m) has been the best pointer in recent times with five of the past six winners of the Makybe Diva Stakes coming out of the Caulfield Group 1. Four of those past five were unplaced in the Memsie, including Grunt and Humidor, who both placed 8th.
Runners to come out of the Memsie this year include So Si Bon (5th) Harlem (7th), Princess Jenni (8th) and last years Makybe Diva Stakes winner, Gatting (last).
The Peter Lawrence Stakes (1400m) was the traditional lead up to this race in the early 2000s before a change of dates to slightly earlier in the spring back in 2011. Kings Will Dream was an eye-catching 3rd in that race this year.
The favoured runners had some mixed results at the barrier draw. Russian Camelot drew barrier 14, while Kings Will Dream is alongside him in 15. Fierce Impact has drawn barrier 5.
Horses that draw within the first eight barriers have tended to do well in the Makybe Diva Stakes with those positions supplying 15 of the 20 winners since 2000. Perfect Jewel (2) and Dalasan (8) are among those in the first half of the field.
The most successful barrier since 2000 has been No. 6, supplying four winners in that time period, including Grunt in 2018 and Dissident in 2014. Harlem has drawn that barrier this year. An interesting statistic is that the most successful age group has been five-year-olds with nine winners since 2000. Vow And Declare and Princess Jenni are the five-year-olds this year.
Five horses aged four have won. Warning, Dalasan, Quick Thinker, Russian Camelot and Miami Bound are in that category this year.
Princess Jenni and Miami Bound are among three mares in the race with Perfect Jewel the other. Southern Speed is the only mare to have won this race since 2000.
The most successful trainers in the race since 2000 have been Mick Price, Darren Weir, David Hayes and Fred Kersley. Hayes won the race in 2004 with Hugs Dancer and backed it up a year later with Confectioner in 2005.
This year, it is Hayes’ son Ben that has taken over at Lindsay Park alongside Tom Dabernig and they have Harlem and So Si Bon in the race. Kings Will Dream and Gailo Chop and Kings Will Dream are former Weir runners.
The most successful jockeys in the race have been Craig Williams, Craig Newitt and Damien Oliver. Of that trio, Williams rides Vow And Declare, while Ollie is on Russian Camelot.
Selections based on Makybe Diva Stakes winning trends:
There is no clear cut pick on trends but Fierce Impact, Kings Will Dream and Harlem all tick a number of boxes.
Of that trio, Harlem might be worth a throw at the stumps.