Manikato Stakes Winning Trends

Adam Cusworth in Manikato Stakes 21 Oct 2020
Manikato Stakes trends

 

The Manikato Stakes (1200m) is one of the premier sprinting races of the Melbourne spring and we take a look at the Manikato Stakes winning trends.

The $1 million feature is named after the five-time winner of the race (1979-1983) and always attracts a quality field of sprinters. Besides Manikato, other big names to salute in the Moonee Valley feature include Chautauqua, Lankan Rupee, Hay List and Sunline.

In 2012 the Manikato Stakes was transferred from mid-September to Cox Plate eve in late October. Looking at the Manikato Stakes winning trends since the year 2000, there are a few things for you to consider when trying to pick a winner.

The Group 1 affair has generally been a bit of a mixed one for favourite backers with eight of the past 20 winners saluting as popular elect. There have been a couple of blowouts in recent years with Rebel Dane scoring at $61 in 2016, while the 2017 winner, Hey Doc, scored at $21. The average price of the winning horses since 2000 is $10.

Last year, Loving Gaby scored as a $7 chance, while the $1.80 favourite, Bivouac, could only manage 6th. Prior to the last few years, favourite backers fared much better. Chautauqua scored as a $2.50 fancy in 2015, while Lankan Rupee ($4) claimed an epic version the year before. Sepoy (2011), Hay List (2010) and Spark Of Life (2004) all scored at odds-on when they won.

This year, Trekking holds favouritism in early markets with NEDS at the $3.60 quote. Dirty Work is at $6, while Pippie at $6.50 and Hey Doc at $8.50 are others in single figure odds. Diamond Effort and Brooklyn Hustle head the rest at $10.

A feature of this years race is that there are no three-year-olds. The most successful age group since 2000 has been the five-year-olds with seven winners. Pippie and Diamond Effort are both five this year.

That pair are two of five mares in the race this year alongside Lyre, Bella Vella and Brooklyn Hustle. Mares have a good record in the Manikato, winning the event on eight occasions since 2000, despite being underrepresented. That group will be out to emulate the likes of Sunline, Spinning Hill and Miss Andretti by winning the Manikato.

For fans of Bella Vella, who has drawn barrier 10 of 11, drawing out hasn’t necessarily been an issue in this race as almost nine of the 20 winners since 2000 have jumped from the outermost three barriers. Three winners have jumped from barrier 10. Splintex, Bella Vella and Order Of Command occupy the last three positions this year.

Bivouac missed out from barrier 1 last year and never really saw clear air. Pippie has drawn the inside this year and it is worth noting that the inside hasn’t necessarily been a bad place to be with three winners coming from barrier 1 since 2000.

Trainers with multiple winners in the last 18 years are Guy Walter and Allan Denham who saddled up Spinning Hill (2002/03) and Spark Of Life (2004/05) respectively. Of the trainers in this years race, the Hawkes’ and Tony McEvoy are among the recent winners. Team Hawkes have Dirty Work, while Tony and Calvin Mcevoy saddle up Hey Doc.

Leading jockeys in the race include Craig Newitt, Kerrin McEvoy, Patrick Payne and Nash Rawiler who have all won twice since 2000. Of that quartet, McEvoy is on Splintex. Craig Williams partnered Loving Gaby last year and he rides Kementari.

Finally, winners have come from a variety of lead up races due to the change of dates of the Manikato in 2012. Since then, two of the past seven winners have come out of the Moir Stakes (1200m). Pippie won that race this year, while Trekking and Bella Vella filled the minors.

Trekking has since placed 4th in The Everest (1200m) behind Classique Legend. Brave Smash was unplaced in the 2018 Everest before winning at the Valley.

Selections based on the Manikato Stakes winning trends:

This is a bit of a tricky one to assess due to the upsets that have occurred in the last couple of years. Long term, however, horses paying $10 or below have fared well, winning on 14 of the past 17 occasions. On trends, Pippie ticks the most boxes.

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