Memsie Stakes Tips & Preview
Looking for expert Memsie Stakes Tips on Saturday, August 29, 2020? Our form expert previews the G1 feature and gives his best bets.
An ultra-competitive field of 15 have assembled for Saturday’s Group 1 Memsie Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield.
Six horses are first-up from a spell, and a few of those look unsuited, while the other nine have performed at least once this spring and we have some form to assess.
HOW DO THE MEMSIE STAKES FAVOURITES FARE?
The giant SA galloper Behemoth has been installed the $4 favourite for trainer David Jolly and jockey Craig Williams, while last start winner Savatiano is on the next line of betting at $4.50.
I’m a big Behemoth fan and backed him for a stack to win first-up in the Spring Stakes (1200m) at Morphettville where he didn’t disappoint.
He stopped the clock at 1:10.80 on the Soft 5 and that win rated 10.4 lengths quicker than standard BM which was a personal best from the son of All Too Hard.
I rated Savatiano as a danger to Sircconi and Kings Will Dream in the PB Lawrence but leaned away from her with blinkers off for the first time.
What I thought was James Cummings leaving something in the tank turned out to be a genius gear change and that’s why he’s Godolphin’s head trainer.
Savatiano’s win rated 10.6 lengths quicker than BM and I simply can’t knock her going into this.
WHO ARE THE VALUE CHANCES?
In comparison to Behemoth, So Si Bon also resumed over 1200m at Flemington on a Soft 7 and clocked 1.10.84 with 60kg on his back.
Interestingly, So Si Bon’s run in the Aurie’s Star rated on par with his win in the event last year where he carried 55.5kg before then carrying 59kg and finishing runner-up to Scales Of Justice in the Memsie Stakes.
He now drops 1kg going into the Memsie and I think he’s been somewhat missed by the market at $26.
Another that has come up at big odds and deserves more respect is the Shane Nichols-trained Streets Of Avalon.
I tipped this galloper at $26 to win the Futurity Stakes (1400m) at Caulfield as he mapped well, peaks third-up and had the figures to win.
He now comes into the Memsie third-up and has trended identically to last campaign other that finding a wet track last start and rating four lengths below which he has done previously on rain-affected tracks.
Caulfield is a Soft 6 at the time of writing this (Wednesday 2pm), but with sunny 17 and 19 degree days leading up to Saturday, the track is sure to dry out a bit.
Streets Of Avalon was caught three wide last start on an unsuitable track, and his effort was far better than it looked – and I’m expecting him to come on from that run as long as the track is better than a Soft 6.
Begood Toya Mother should set the speed and I think he needs this run to bring him on to his peak, and Streets Of Avalon needs to use his fitness and come across from the outside and sit outside the leader.
Streets Of Avalon is a bit one-paced, but Ben Melham knows how to ride him and will push the button early and use that fitness to advantage.
WHO WILL WIN THE MEMSIE STAKES IN 2020?
Behemoth and Savatiano do look hard to beat and Mr Quickie can run big fresh races and also looms as a chance.
The other Godolphin horse, Cascadian, can also improve on firmer ground with that fresh run under the belt.
I’m hedging my bets here and backing both So Si Bon and Streets Of Avalon at $26 and $23.