Moir Stakes Tips & Preview
Looking for Moir Stakes Tips on Friday, September 25? Our form expert previews the Moonee Valley Group 1 and gives his best bets for the race.
Moir Stakes Preview
Friday night’s Moir Stakes (1000m) at The Valley sees 12 speedsters compete for $1 million in prizemoney.
We see four sprinters come through the Mitty’s McEwen Stakes (1000m) at The Valley, Jungle Edge comes via the Bletchingly Stakes (1200m) and Diamond Effort through The Heath (1100m), while the remaining six are first-up from a break.
It’s hard to put an instant knock on a horse that has won her last five in a row, but I’m happy to firstly put the pen through Diamond Effort who always runs far below her first-up effort when second-up.
She recorded a personal best (PB) first-up this campaign going 13.8 lengths quicker than standard Benchmark (BM), but she also went 13.5 lengths quicker than BM first-up last preparation and followed that by going five lengths quicker than BM when winning.
In her preparation before that, she went 9.8 lengths quicker than BM first-up and then 2.1 lengths quicker, so she is a mare that consistently decreases her BM performance second-up and looks like struggling in a Group 1 second-up this time.
Who are the highest performed sprinters?
In terms of peak BM performances, Trekking takes honours here having gone 16.8 lengths quicker than standard when winning the Schillaci Stakes (1100m) second-up last spring.
That run followed his 8th placing in the Moir Stakes where he worked home from last to be beaten 1.6 lengths by Nature Strip.
I’m concerned he again gets back from the wide gate, and I’d prefer to be with him next time.
Pippie is next best having gone 15.5 lengths quicker than standard when leading all the way at a super-hot speed to take out the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m).
She only carried 52kg on that occasion and did tire late after going 12.2 lengths quicker than standard to the 600m, but the Moir is 100m shorter, and even with 56.5kg this time, she should prove hard to catch if she leads.
The other 10 runners have PBs of between 14.1 and 9.1 lengths quicker than BM, but many haven’t been able to produce those figures at the stage of their preparations they are currently at.
How does the speed map look?
The first 100m of the Moir Stakes will play the most crucial role in the result.
Bella Vella is known as a speed horse, but her figures don’t indicate her leading here – I think she lands right behind the speed from the inside gate.
Ashlor will go forward from barrier 3, but the real question is, will Pippie press on for the lead or sit outside Ashlor, and will Fabergino try and lead or take a sit behind Ashlor and Pippie.
Regardless, Jungle Edge looks like getting caught three deep without cover.
If he sits three deep around the leaders, it could create a traffic jam for Fabergino and Bella Vella, and that may hand them the race unless something launches down the outside.
Trekking looks the most likely of the backmarkers to threaten, but he’ll need a tone of luck to get through the pack and be charging late from barrier 2.
Who will win the Moir Stakes in 2020?
A tough race that I narrowed down to five runners for the multiples: Trekking, Hey Doc, Bella Vella, Pippie and Fabergino.
It’s hard to ignore Pippie’s first-up win in the Oakleigh Plate last campaign, and if she can replicate that first-up effort, I can’t see anything running her down with Damian Lane in the saddle.
Things didn’t go her way in the William Reid Stakes (1200m) at this track the following start where she finished 4th beaten 3.2 lengths by Loving Gaby.
Following one more run, trainers John and Chris Meagher pulled stumps and set their sights on the spring with the Moir looking like the ideal first-up option.
She’s more than likely to be in the first two as they hit the first bend, and from there, Pippie will prove extremely hard to catch.
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