Moir Stakes Winning Trends

Adam Cusworth in Moir Stakes 23 Sep 2020
Moir Stakes Trends

 

The Moir Stakes (1000m) is a Group 1 race at Moonee Valley that has been taken out by some big names in the past and we take a look at the Moir Stakes winning trends.

The Moonee Valley feature is set to be run on Friday September 25 and the sprint race is the first of three Group 1 races for the weekend. The $1 million affair has a rich honour roll and has been won by the likes of Manikato (1982), Falvelon (2000), Apache Cat (2009) and Black Caviar (2010-2011). Buffering is a three-time winner of the race, having scored in 2012, 2014 and 2015. Last year, Nature Strip saluted.

The Moir, formerly known as the Schweppes Stakes, has undergone some changes in recent times. It was formerly a Group 2 race that was held on Cox Plate day and run over the 1200m distance from 2007 until 2014. In 2013, the Moir was elevated to Group 1 status and shifted to AFL Grand Final eve in late September. That year it was taken out by Samaready.

In analysing the history of the Moir, there are a few things to consider when it comes to picking a winner, so keep these recent Moir Stakes winning trends in mind come Friday night. The race has been won by a number of short priced favourites in the time period since the year 2000, including Falvelon, who scored at $1.40 in 2000 as well as Miss Andretti ($2.40 in 2007) and Buffering ($2 in 2012).

The mighty Black Caviar scored as a $1.40 pop in 2010 and then backed up at the bank interest odds of $1.05 in 2011. Nature Strip missed out as a $1.80 chance in 2018, finishing down the track as Viddora scored at $12. However, he rebounded to score as a $3.30 favourite in 2019.

She Will Reign won as a $4.40 chance in 2017, upstaging the $3 fancy, Russian Revolution, who could only manage 8th. Chautauqua was rolled in 2016 as a $2.50 popular elect by Extreme Choice ($5).

In early markets with Sportsbet this year, the West Australian mare, Fabergino, has been installed as a $4.60 chance ahead of Bella Vella and Away Game at $7.50. Pippie is at $8.50, while Trekking is at $9.50.

The wet-track specialist, Jungle Edge is at $11, as is Diamond Effort. Hey Doc and Hanseatic head the rest of the field at $15 If you like one of the favoured runners, keep in mind that history does suggest the winner will come from one of the first few in the market. The average price of the winning horses since 2000 has been just $5

Viddora is the only winner this millennium to have won at $10 or above. Amazingly, Bomber Bill (at $8.50 in 2004) is the second longest priced winner of the Moir since 2000.

The race favourite, Fabergino, is one of five mares in the race. The others are Bella Vella, Pippie, Diamond Effort and Brooklyn Hustle. Away Game and Bella Nipotina are fillies.

The fillies & mares have a terrific record, accounting for nine of the 20 winners since 2000, despite being underrepresented. In 2018, Viddora joined the likes of Our Egyptian Raine, Spinning Hill, Black Caviar and Miss Andretti as winners of the Moir.

Hanseatic joins Away Game and Bella Vella as the three-year-olds in the race. Two of the past four editions of the Moir have been won by three-year-olds and they were Extreme Choice and She Will Reign. No horses aged three have raced in the past two years.

The most successful age group since 2000 has been the five-year-olds with five winners. Bold Star, Pippie, and Diamond Effort are the five-year-olds this year.

Successful barriers to jump from have been 2, 3 and 7, accounting for 10 of the 20 winners since 2000. Trekking, Away Game and Hanseatic have drawn those spots this year.

Nature Strip drew barrier 1 last year but three of the past four winners have drawn in the second half of the field. Hey Doc, Bella Nipotina and Bold Star have drawn widest. Bella Vella jumps from barrier 1.

With the change in dates for this race, the lead up form to this is hard to get a gauge on. Five of the past six winners have claimed this first up run from a spell. Two were first up off a Golden Slipper (1200m) campaign. Two were first up after running in the Doomben 10000, while Viddora had her last run in the Goodwood. Nature Strip was second up last year.

Fresh runners this year are Trekking, Hey Doc, Jungle Edge, Pippie, Fabergino and Away Game. Bella Vella, Diamond Effort, Hanseatic and Bella Nipotina are those with the one run under their belt.

Successful trainers in the Moir include Robert Heathcote, courtesy of Buffering, and Peter Moody. Mick Price won the race with Samaready in 2013 and Extreme Choice in 2016. None of that trio have a runner this year.

Craig Newitt, Damien Browne, Luke Nolen and Damien Oliver are all multiple winning jockeys. None of that quartet have a runner. Craig Williams won aboard Virage De Fortune in 2005 and rides Bold Star this year.

Finally, it is worth noting that a number of interstate gallopers have successfully raided this race over the years. Since 2000, 10 of the 20 winners have come from interstate, including Buffering and Spinning Hill, which augurs well for the likes of Bold Star, Bella Vella and Fabergino.

Selections according to Moir Stakes winning trends:

Fabergino ticks plenty of boxes. Interstate gallopers have a great record in the Moir, as do mares. Fresh runners also tend to fire, while horses in single figures have won all bar one edition of this race since 2000.

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