Newmarket Handicap Tips & Preview
NEWMARKET HANDICAP TIPS & PREVIEW
Tips will be available following the barrier draw. See our 2021 preview below for an example of what to expect.
Saturday’s Group 1 Newmarket Handicap has attracted a field of 18 sprinters, and it’s raw speed that counts most when trying to find the winner.
Other than Black Caviar who won this race in 2011 and ran 1.07.3, no other horse has gone quicker than 1:08 to win this race in the past 20 years.
In that period, 10 winners have gone between 1:08.1 and 1:08.9 while the rest were slower.
So, it makes sense to firstly look at horses that can run that sort of time down the Flemington Straight Six (1200m).
The 2021 Newmarket Handicap favourite, September Run, falls outside the benchmark with her only win at the track and trip being in 01:09.61 when she won the Coolmore Stud Stakes on a Good 3.
In fact, that time would see her fail to place in the last 20 Newmarket Handicaps, but that doesn’t mean she can’t go to another level here and post a winning time.
The only three horses to have run sizzling time at the track and trip recently include: Zoutori (01:08.38 Gilgai Stakes), Kemalpasa (0.2 of a length from Zoutori in Gilgai Stakes) and Sirius Suspect (01:08.03 MSS Security Sprint).
Zoutori was second-up when he posted his quick time last campaign, and he comes into the Newmarket second-up on Saturday.
Kemalpasa was third-up posting his PB and is third-up on Saturday, and Sirius Suspect’s PB was first-up last campaign and he also comes into the Newmarket first-up off a small break.
Zoutori and Sirius Suspect both carry 2kg less than when they posted their PBs and Kemalpasa carries 2.5kg less so not a lot of difference there.
Of that trio, Sirius Suspect has the quicker time which rates two lengths quicker than the other pair.
If we take benchmark performances into account, Sirius Suspect went 15.8 lengths quicker than standard on that occasion and is the only horse other than Prague (8.5 lengths quicker than BM) to have posted his PB at the track and trip.
Celebrity Queen (16.4), Kemalpasa (16.1) and Brooklyn Hussle (16.0) are the only horses to boast a higher BM figure, and each did it last start in the Oakleigh Plate (1100m) at Caulfield.
That race was run ridiculously quick early which accounts for the high BM performances.
As for the favourite September Run, she quite simply has the best turn of foot in the field and will be charging home late like she did in the Black Caviar Lightning (1000m) when 2nd to Nature Strip.
She really only hit top gear in the final 150m, and she looks perfectly suited stepping back up to 1200m.
There is enough early speed in the race for September Run to finish over the top of them, but she will need a clear, uninterrupted run to do her best work.
If she gets a clear crack at them, I have no doubt she’s the horse to beat, but if she’s held up even momentarily, she may struggle to pick up the likes of Sirius Suspect who will be making his own luck on speed with Jamie Kah aboard.