Queen Elizabeth Stakes Trends: Who history points to winning
- Which horse do the long term trends point towards in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes?
QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES HISTORICAL TRENDS
How can the Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) trends help us find a winner in the middle distance feature at Randwick on Saturday?
The Queen Elizabeth Stakes (2000m) is now considered to be one of the most prestigious races on the Australian calendar, following a significant boost in prize money five years ago. The Group 1 is normally worth $4 million although that number has been scaled back to $2 million as part of cost cutting measures due to Coronavirus.
But it is regarded as one of the marquee events of Sydney’s autumn carnival that is headlined by ‘The Championships. Since the prizemoney change it has been won by It’s A Dundeel, Criterion, Lucia Valentina and Winx in the past three years. Other past winners include, Might And Power, Tulloch and Pharlap.
It will have a different feel this year without Winx on the scene and the early favourites are the imported pair of Danon Premium at $3.70 and Addeybb at $4.80. The Kiwi galloper, Te Akau Shark, is at $5.50 ahead of Verry Elleegant at $6.50. The promising Master Of Wine heads the rest at $8.50. In order to help you sort out your tips, we have analysed the Queen Elizabeth Stakes trends of the race since the year 2000 and it points to the following.
Eight of the 20 favourites since 2000 have won the race but that number is inflated somewhat by Winx in the past few years. Prior to her domination, the likes of The United States, To The World and Silent Achiever missed out as the popular elect. Going back further and Tuesday Joy and Lonhro are others that missed out.
Interestingly, Lonhro was rolled as a $1.26 chance in 2004 in what was his last start before going to stud, when Gai Waterhouse’s Grand Armee romped to a six length win. Lonhro fared better the year before, scoring as a $1.90 favourite, while Grand Armee (2005) and Eremein (2006) also won at that price later on. Road To Rock (2010) and More Joyous (2012) are other favourites to score in this race.
Both of those gallopers won as $3.25 fancies. Winx, More Joyous and Lucia Valentina are mares to have won the Queen Elizabeth Stakes this milennium. But generally it has been the male horses that have dominated this race, although the girls have been under-represented. Of the favoured runners this year, all are male with the exception of Verry Elleegant and Melody Belle.
That duo are the only two mares in the race this year. The average price of the winning horses since 2000 has been $7.60 and Sarerra (2008) is the only out and out roughie to win the event in that time period, scoring at the odds of $51. Barriers have played an important part in determining the winner of the Queen Elizabeth Stakes with 11 of the past 20 winners jumping from between barriers 1-4. This year, those positions are occupied by Addeybb, Verry Elleegant, Danon Premium and Melody Belle.
It is interesting to note that that all winners since 2000, except Sarrera, have had their last start in Sydney and seven of the 20 winners have come out of the Doncaster Handicap (1600m), while five have dropped back in distance after tackling the BMW (2400m) at their previous start.
Winx had the George Ryder Stakes (1500m) as her final lead up in the past three years as did Criterion and Reliable Man when they won. Of the runners this year, Te Akau Shark comes off a 3rd placing in the George Ryder, while Verry Elegant was successful in the Tancred Stakes. Melody Belle (4th), Kings Will Dream (5th) and Holding (7th) are among those to have come out of the Doncaster.
Addeybb had his most recent run in the Ranvet Stakes (2000m). Past winners of the Queen Elizabeth Stakes that have run in the Ranvet have also usually gone on to run in the Tancred Stakes. The most successful age group in the Queen Elizabeth Stakes has been the four-year-olds, who have provided seven winners since 2000 including It’s A Dundeel, Lonhro, Defier (2002) and Shogun Lodge (2001).
This year, Vow And Declare, Kolding and Verry Elleegant are the four-year-olds. The most successful trainers in the race have been Chris Waller and Gai Waterhouse. Waller has had five wins. Three of those were with Winx. Waterhouse has had four winners, including Grand Armee on two occasions, while her others were Desert War (2007) and More Joyous. Waller took out the race in 2011 with My Kingdom Of Fife before claiming victory again in 2013 with Reliable Man and Winx (2017-2018-2019).
This year, Waller has Kolding, Kings Will Dream, Imaging, Life Less Ordinary and Verry Elleegant. There are two international horses in the field this year and they are the Japanese runner, Danon Premium, and Addeybb. No foreign trained horses have won the Queen Elizabeth although Kluger ran a bottler when runner-up to Winx last year.
Only two Victorian based trainers have won the race since 2000 and they were the Hayes and Dabernig team in 2015, as well as Mike Moroney in 2008. Of the jockeys, Damien Oliver and Hugh Bowman have won the race on four occasions, while Glen Boss and Nash Rawiler both have two wins since 2000.This year, Boss is on Vow And Declare, while Rawiler is on Verry Elleegant.
Selections according to the Queen Elizabeth Stakes trends