Queensland Derby Tips & Preview
QUEENSLAND DERBY TIPS & PREVIEW
Looking for Queensland Derby tips and best bets? We dissect times and form to find the winner of the 2022 Queensland Derby at Eagle Farm.
Tips will be available following the barrier draw. See our 2021 preview below for an example of what to expect.
The race favourite in markets after the barrier draw is Explosive Jack, who will be out to make history by claiming his fourth Derby for the season.
The iron horse from the Maher/Eustace camp appears to be going from strength to strength and set a personal best by going 8.5 lengths faster than standard at Morphettville when overcoming a wide run to defeat Let’s Karaka Deel ($7.50) by more than two lengths.
They are the best last start figures of any runner in this race and he is extremely hard to ignore after drawing barrier 6.
With the exception of Let’s Karaka Deel, Horrifying and Hezashocka, all other contenders come out of races in either New South Wales or Queensland.
One of the key lead ups to the Queensland Derby is the Rough Habit Plate and seven of the three-year-olds come out of that lead up. The Rough Habit Plate was taken out by Criminal Defence, who sat on the speed before going on to win by a length from Kukeracha.
They went very slow in that race early on, giving the back markers little chance. Criminal Defence ($19) went just 0.4 lengths slower than standard and will need to improve that rating on the wide expanses of Eagle Farm.
Senor Toba ($5.50) settled back and gave them too big a start before producing the fastest last 200m, finishing 3rd, beaten just over a length. He shapes as the big improver but will have to do it from barrier 21.
The grey galloper from the Chris Waller camp is capable and went 11 lengths faster than standard at his start prior when taking out the Frank Packer Plate (2000m) at Randwick. They are the best figures that any runner in this race has produced.
His stablemate, Kukeracha ($15), split Criminal Defence and Señor Toba in the Rough Habit Plate by finishing runner-up and has drawn perfectly for this assignment in barrier 2.
Other key contenders are Horrifying ($13) and Fortified ($17). Horrifying heads up from Melbourne and is on the back up after taking out a Super Vobis race for the three-year-olds over the 2000m at Flemington last weekend.
The Mark Kavanagh-trained gelding overcame a slow early tempo at headquarters and was strong late in the piece, going four lengths faster than standard. He went more than eight lengths faster than standard in his two runs prior to that and looks like he wants the 2400m.
Fortified was a dominant winner at Ipswich and this is a huge step up. But he overcame trouble that day and does have the Waller polish.
The Sydney trainer has six runners in the race, including Senor Toba and Kukeracha. Achiever, Quiet Michael and Bucharest are his others.
Quiet Michael ran home for 3rd in a BenchMark 72 at Rosehill last weekend and produced some nice late sectionals. The Gai Waterhouse and Adrain Bott-trained Maranoa was runner-up in that race and went five lengths faster than standard. He led them up on that occasion before just fading late in the piece.
Achiever has form around Senor Toba and was 3rd behind that horse in the Frank Packer Plater. He has since picked up a win at BenchMark 78 level at Rosehill over the 2000m.
The New Zealander, Hezashocka, is the least experienced in the field but won at Group 2 level at Ellerslie on April 24 and has been kept safe in the market.
Queensland Derby Tips & Verdict
It is hard to tip against Explosive Jack (best odds $2.90 but $4 Price Push Promo available (max bet $50) with Unibet), who arrived in time in the Australian Derby before oozing class in the South Australian Derby last time. While a number of the others have a stack of upside, he is the proven performer and looks to be a relatively safe bet at the price. For those after a roughie, consider Quiet Michael. He has been improving his figures with every start and should enjoy the 2400m.