Railway Stakes Winning Trends

Adam Cusworth in Railway Stakes 17 Nov 2020
Railway Stakes trends

 

The Railway Stakes (1600m) is one of Western Australia’s most iconic races and we take a look at the Railway Stakes winning trends.

The $1 million feature has been won in the past by such guns as Northerly and Old Comrade. Last year, the Railway Stakes was taken out by Regal Power.

The Ascot mile race carries handicap conditions and usually attracts the best local gallopers as well as a mix of interstate contenders chasing Group 1 glory. Due to the mix of gallopers from parts of Australia, as well as the handicap conditions, the race can be a tricky one for punters. We have analysed the Railway Stakes winning trends of the race since the year 2000 in the hope of taking some of the guesswork out for you when finding a winner. Here are some things to consider.

The average price of the winning horses since 2000 has been a healthy $10.20. Only three favourite’s have won the race in that time period. They were Galaxy Star in 2018, El Presidente in 2007 and Luckygray in 2011. Last year’s winner, Regal Power, paid $10.

13 of the past 20 winners have started at single figure odds, while seven have been at $10 or over. The 2017 winner, Great Shot scored as a $31 chance. Tom Melbourne was the $5 favourite in that race and ran 3rd. In 2016, Perfect Reflection went down as a $4.50 chance.

In early markets with ladbrokes this year, Inspirational Girl has been installed as a $3.50 favourite ahead of Kay Cee at $5.50, while the last start Ascot Gold Cup (1800m) winner, Too Close The Sun, is at $6.50. Truly Great is an $8 chance, while Red Can Man is at $9. Kementari heads the rest at $9.

There is a distinct lack of gallopers from the eastern states this year, due in part to restrictions on connections being allowed to travel because of Covid-19. Kementari and Gailo Chop come over from interstate, while Too Close The Sun can probably be considered to be a local, despite having had a number of runs in Victoria this year.

Locally trained galloper’s have had the upper hand on their rivals from the eastern seaboard with Chris Waller’s Good Project and the John Thompson-trained Gathering, the only successful interstate winners since 2000.

Successful local trainers in the race include Grant & Alana Williams, Lindsey Smith and Adam Durrant. The Williams’ have won the past two Railway Stakes for Bob Peters, with those gallopers carrying the famous pink and white silks to victory.

This year, Inspirational Girl, Truly Great and True Attraction wear those colours. True Attraction will struggle to get into the starting 16 as he is the fourth emergency. He is trained by Adam Durrant, while the other two are in the Williams stable. Lindsey Smith has To Close The Sun in the race.

That galloper is one of 11 horses (including the emergencies) that have been allocated the minimum weight of 53kg. The average weight that the winning horses have carted to victory since 2000 has been 53.5kg.

Kementari carries 58kg and will have to defy history by becoming just the second galloper to carry top weight to victory this millennium. The most successful age group in the Railway Stakes has been the four-year-olds with 10 wins since 2000, including three of the last five Horses belonging to that age bracket this year are Kay Cee and Red Can Man.

An interesting statistic is that horses drawn wide have tended not to be disadvantaged in the Railway Stakes. Six of the past 11 winners have drawn double digit barriers, with barrier 12 the most successful gate to jump from since 2000, accounting for five of the 20 winners. Regal Power drew barrier 13 last year. Kay Cee, Too Close The Sun, Gailo Chop and Truly Great are some of the notable names that have drawn out this year.

Willy Pike, Shaun O’Donnell and Paul Harvey are jockeys with multiple wins in the Railway since the year 2000. This year, Pike will be going for a hat-trick of wins in the race and he is aboard Inspirational Girl. Harvey rides Material Man, while O’Donnell will be hoping the first emergency, Arctic Stream can sneak into the field.

Finally, the ideal lead up to the Railway Stakes has been the Lee Steere Stakes (1400m) run at Ascot a fortnight prior to the railway. Seven winners have come out of that race since 2000 and this year, Kay Cee, Red Can Man and Kementari filled the trifecta in that race. 14 of the 20 winners of the Railway since 2000 finished in the top two at their previous starts.

Selection based on the Railway Stakes winning trends:

Kay Cee is a clear top pick based on the trends of this race.

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