Randwick Guineas Tips: Who history points to winning

Adam Cusworth in Randwick Guineas 5 Mar 2020
  • Which horse does history point towards winning the Randwick Guineas?
The Autumn Sun

The Randwick Guineas (1600m) is the first leg of the Sydney Three-Year-Old Triple Crown, which also consists of the Rosehill Guineas (2000m) and Australian Derby (2400m).

It has been one by some champion gallopers over the years, including the likes of It’s A Dundeel and Weekend Hussler, while Octagonal won the race back in 1996 when it was known as the Canterbury Guineas. Last year, The Autumn Sun, came from the clouds to win the race and had just one more run before retiring to stud.

The Randwick Guineas was moved to its current home of Randwick racecourse in 2006, having previously been held at the tight turning Canterbury racecourse in Sydney’s inner west. In order to help find you a winner in the Randwick Guineas, we have analysed the trends of the race since the year 2000 and it points to the following.

17 of the 20 winners have started at odds of $10 or below. Le Romain scored at $21 in 2016, defeating Press Statement, while Dissident ($11 in 2014) was another recent winner that started at double figure odds. Metal Bender is the biggest priced winner since 2000 and scored at $21 in 2009. In that time period, the average price of the winning horses has been $6.50 with seven favourites winning.

They were last years winner, The Autumn Sun at $1.80, Kementari in 2018 at $2.35, Ilovethiscity in 2011 at $1.90 in 2011, Shoot Out at $3 in 2010, Weekend Hussler at $1.65 in 2008 and Mentality at $2.75 in 2007.

A further six winners were slight second favourite’s including Hallowed Crown, who toppled Shooting To Win in 2015 and It’s A Dundeel, who was too good for Rebel Dane in 2013. This year, Shadow Hero is a $4.80 favourite after the pre-race scratching of Super Seth. Castlevecchio is at $5.50, while Microphone is at $7.

The last start Hobartville Stakes (1400m) winner, Brandenburg is at $8. The ideal lead up form to the Randwick Guineas has traditionally been the Hobartville Stakes (1400m) and nine of the past 10 winners have come out of that lead up. Five of those winners have completed the double including The Autumn Sun, Kementari, Hallowed Crown, Dissident and Ilovethiscity (2011).

This year, Relaoded and Microphone filled the placings behind Brandeburg. Pancho was 4th, Shadow Hero was 5th, while Castlevecchio was 6th. This year’s edition of the race sees a field of 13 in action and if you are considering a wager on Brandenburg, Castlevecchio, Reloaded or Microphone, you will be pleased to know that horses drawn wide in the field have a respectable record in this race.

That quartet occupy the four widest barriers. Half of winners since 2000 have drawn in the second half of the field, including Inference, Dissident and Mosheen (2012).

For fans of the Chris Waller, who trains Kubrick and Pancho, the champion trainer claimed his first win in this race last year with The Autumn Sun. He missed out in 2016 as Press Statement was ruled as a hot favourite. James Cummings, John Hawkes and Jack Denham are the only multiple winning trainers since 2000.

James Cummings saddled up Kementari in 2018 and teamed with his Grandfather, Bart, to win the event in 2014 with Hallowed Crown. He has Microphone this year.

Selection based on trends:

Brandenburg can go on with it after taking out the Hobartville.

Prediction
Brandenburg $8 Bet now!