Ranvet Stakes Tips: Who history points to winning
- Which horse do the long term trends point towards in the Ranvet Stakes?
The Ranvet Stakes (2000m) is one of the feature middle distance races of the Sydney autumn and has been won by some star gallopers in the past including Grand Armee in 2005, Tie The Knot in 2000/2001 and Tulloch back in 1958.
In recent times, it has provided an interesting mix of results with a number of favoured runners dominating, while there have also been a couple of blowouts. Zavite claimed the Ranvet as a $101 chance in 2011, while Foreteller scored at $31 in 2013. Republic Lass upstaged the mighty Northerly in 2003 at the odds of $8.
Last year’s winner, Avilius, won as a $4.40 favourite, while in 2018, Gailo Chop, scored at $2.05. In analysing the trends of the race since the year 2000, there are a number of things to consider when it comes to picking a winner in the $700,000 Group 1.
The average price of the winning horses has been $10.60 in that time period but take Zavite out of the equation and that price tumbles down to $5.80. 11 of 20 favourites have won since 2000 including Contributer in 2015 as well as Theseo in 2009/2010. Tie The Knot (2001) and Grand Armee (2005) are gallopers to win at ‘odds-on’.
This year, the UK galloper, Addeybb, is a $2.20 favourite in early markets ahead of Avilius, who will be going for back to back wins. The Godolphin horse is at $3.90, while Verry Elleegant is at $4.40. Others in the field are Danzdanzdance at $11, Youngstar at $15, Nettoyer at $23 and Norway at $26. Interestingly, 11 of the 20 winners since the year 2000 have drawn between barrier’s 1 to 4. This year, Norway, Avilius, Danzdanzdance and Youngster occupy those spots.
Aviilius comes off a last start 5th in the Australian Cup (2000m), which was ran a fortnight ago. Six winners since 2000 come out of the Australian Cup, including the past two, as well as Foreteller in 2013 and Manighar in 2012. The United States came out of the Blamey Stakes (1600m) at Flemington in 2016.
However, the ideal lead up to the Ranvet over the journey has been the Chipping Norton Stakes (1600m), accounting for 10 of the past 20 winners. Verry Elleegant was runner up in that race this year. A feature of this year’s edition of the Ranvet is that there are four mares in the field of seven. Only three mares have won this since 2000. The were Silent Achiever, Tuesday Joy and Republic Lass.
Norway and Verry Elleegant are four-year-olds in the race this year and that age group have won the Ranvet on five occasions since 2000 but the most successful age group in the race in that time period has been the six-year-olds with seven winners. Avilius, Addeybb and Nettoyer are horses that age this year.
Guy Walter and Gai Waterhouse have been the most successful trainers since 2000. Chris Waller has four of the seven runners this year and was successful with Foreteller in 2013. James Cummings will be going for back to back wins with Avilius.
Of the jockeys, Kerrin McEvoy, Glen Boss and Nash Rawiler are multiple winners since 2000. This year, McEvoy rides Youngster, while Boss steers Nettoyer.
Selection according to trends.
While the UK galloper throws a bit of uncertainty into the mix, Verry Elleegant ticks the most boxes from a trends point of view