Robert Sangster Stakes Tips & Preview
Looking for Robert Sangster Stakes Tips at Morphettville on May 2? Our form expert has previewed the sprint feature and given his top selection for the race.
ROBERT SANGESTER STAKES (TAB CLASSIC) TIPS & PREVIEW 2020
Classy mare Sunlight is the $3 favourite for Saturday’s TAB Classic, and I think she’s under the odds.
She’s never raced on a genuine Heavy track and that’s likely to be the case at Morphettville Racecourse which went from a Soft 5 on Wednesday to a Heavy 8 overnight.
There is rain predicted for each day leading up to and including Saturday, so it’s hard to see Morphettville getting back into the Soft range even though it has a great drainage system.
Sunlight was no match for Gytrash first-up in the RN Irwin Stakes (1100m), and she crossed the line in 1:04.68, which puts her just ahead of three-year-old filly Garner who ran 1:04.85 when winning the following event.
The barrier draw hasn’t made it any easier for Sunlight as she’ll jump from gate 14 and be forced to work early to cross the field.
The speedy Bella Vella has drawn to Sunlight’s inside, and Sunlight is likely to follow that mare across and sit to her outside – pushing on to the lead would be suicide.
And then the lightly-weighted Away Game has drawn beautifully in barrier 3 (presuming the second emergency doesn’t get a run), and she has the speed to hold them all out.
HOW WILL THE RACE MAP?
The biggest question mark I have when trying to map this race is anticipating if Ciaron Maher and David Eustace will give jockey Dean Holland instructions to go forward on Away Game or take a sit behind Bella Vella and Sunlight.
I have doubts on Bella Vella running the 1200m right out, and she may feel the pinch at the 150m to 100m mark which could pose a problem for Away Game if she’s trapped behind that mare.
Away Game can’t afford to let a quality sprinter like Sunlight gain a winning break in the straight.
I think they need to take the race by the scruff of the neck and push forward with the light weight (47kg) and let the rest try and run the rock-hard-fit Away Game down.
Away Game’s stablemate, Bam’s On Fire, has a full set of blinkers on for the first time and has led at his past four starts.
He could also inject speed from barrier 5 as he drops back from 1400m to 1200m.
These variables don’t bode well for Bella Vella or Sunlight, but Away Game and Bam’s On Fire have the option to go at their own pace and not be dictated to.
WHO WILL WIN THE ROBERT SANGSTER STAKES?
I’m siding with Away Game for the following reasons:
1. She maps to run her own race.
2. She won on a Heavy track last start.
3. Lightly weighted horses have the biggest advantage when they are on-pace types.
4. She’s in the right stable and tries her heart out every time.
5. Her BM figures combined with the weight drop make her the one to beat.
Away Game ran a personal best BM figure when runner-up to Farnan in the Golden Slipper (1200m) where she went 9.7 lengths quicker than BM on a Soft 5 at Rosehill.
That figure rated seven lengths below I Am Excited who carried 53kg to win The Galaxy (1100m) in the following event.
However, Last start, Away Game’s win in the Percy Sykes Stakes (1200m) at Randwick rated on par with I Am Excited who was 5th in the Sapphire Stakes (1200m) after covering ground in the run.
I Am Excited is quite predictable on peak performance.
She peaked third-up in her first three campaigns, second-up in her next campaign and then third-up this preparation posting a new PB going 16.6 lengths quicker than standard BM when taking out The Galaxy.
With more weight and a peak pattern that tapers off deeper into a preparation, I’m confident she can’t reach those figures again.
Away Game now drops 9kg on that run and I Am Excited drops 2.5kg, and with the map likely to favour Away Game, I can’t have I Am Excited in front of the two-year-old.
BEST ROUGHIE IN THE ROBERT SANGSTER STAKES
If the Mick Price and Michael Kent Jrn-trained Mystery Love gets a run as first emergency, I think she could surprise.
She ran the highest rating BM performance from the 600m last start going 12.4 lengths quicker than BM.
She improved her BM performance by 14 lengths when second-up last campaign off a three-week break, and a similar break should see her improve again.
Having run a PB overall rating of 10.7 lengths quicker than BM first-up this time, she’s set to go to a new level on Saturday.
At $31, she looks over the odds if she gets a run.
Sunlight must be respected but has a few things against her and looks under the odds.
I Am Excited rates as a big danger with the right run.
Away Game ticks a lot of boxes and has given punters no reason to drop off, and she comes out on top in my Robert Sangster Stakes Tips for 2020.