Robert Sangster Stakes Trends: Who history points to winning
Robert sangster STAKES HISTORICAL TRENDS
How can the Robert Sangster Stakes (1200m) trends help us find a winner in the second of the two Group 1 races at Morphettville on Saturday?
The Robert Sangster Stakes (1200m), which will be raced as the TAB Classic this year, gained Group 1 status in 2005 and has been won by some top gallopers including Alinghi in 2005 and Miracles Of Life in 2015, while the mightiest of them all, Black Caviar, was successful in the race in 2012.
When it comes to picking a winner in the $400,000 sprint for the fillies and mares there are a few things to take into account. We have made the job easier for you by analysing the Robert Sangster Stakes trends since the year 2000. In the time period since then, the Sangster has been dominated by four-year-olds, who have won the race on 11 occasions, while five three-year-olds have saluted.
This year, it is a four-year-old that heads the market and that mare is the Tony & Calvin McEvoy-trained Spright, who has been posted at the odds of $2.90 with sportsbet. Others in the market are the two-year-old, Away Game, at $6, while Savatiano is at $8.50. Lyre is at $9, while I Am Excited ($12) and Humma Humma ($15) are next. Bam’s On Fire ($17), Teleplay ($21) and Bella Vella ($21) head the rest.
Of that group, Humma Humma and Bam’s On Fire are other four-year-olds. Lyre is the sole three-year-old in the race. For fans of I Am Excited, Savatiano, Teleplay and Bella Vella, who are all five, keep in mind that only Spright, Black Caviar and Ellicorsam have been able to win this race since 2000 at the age of five.
A lot of the pre-race speculation centres around Away Game, who makes a rare appearance in an open age Group 1 as a two-year-old. The Ciaron Maher and David Eustace-trained galloper will be out to become the first youngster to win an open age Group 1 since Desirable won the Lightning Stakes (1000m) in 1976.
Few others have tried in that time period. The stable ran Dubious as a two-year-old in the Kingsford Smith Cup (1300m) last year and that horse ran 5th in that race.
It is interesting to note that the Sangster has provided some mixed results. Black Caviar ($1.05) and Alinghi ($1.30) won as raging favourites but the three of the past four winners have paid double figure odds. Shoals won at $12 in 2018, while Secret Agenda scored as a $15 pop in 2017. In 2016, it was Precious Gem at $21.
Rain Dance Lady (2001), Juste Momente (2008) and Rostova (2010) also won at the odds of $21. The average price of the winning horses since 2000 has been $9.40. There has been no obvious form reference for this race over the years as the fillies and mares have come from quite a variety of lead up races. Eight of the 20 winners have had their previous runs at Flemington, but in a variety of races, while the past three winners come off runs at Randwick during the Sydney carnival. Two of those were in the Sapphire Stakes (1200m)
The 2013 and 2014 winners, Platelet and Driefontein, had previously lined up in the Irwin Stakes (1100m) at Morphettville. This year, no horses come off a Flemington run, but a number were involved in the recent Bel Esprit Stakes (1100m) at Caulfield, including Humma Humma (2nd) and Lyre (4th). Out of the Sapphire Stakes in Sydney come I Am Excited (5th), Savatiano (6th), Madam Rouge (7th). Sunlight was runner-up in the Irwin Stakes (1100m).
The most successful trainers in the race have been Lee Freedman and Mick Price, combining for six of the winners since 2000. Neither have a runner. Anthony Freedman won with Shoals two years ago and has Lyre. Horses from Victoria have won the race on 14 of the 20 occasions since 2000, while four have been from Sydney and two have been locals. This year, the likes of Humma Humma, Lyre and Away Game come from Victoria. Sunlight hails from the McEvoy’s Angaston stables outside of Adelaide.
Finally, it is interesting to note that it has been an advantage to draw wide in this race. 14 of the 20 winners since the year 2000 have drawn in the second half of the field, including the past three winners. This year, Sunlight has drawn barrier 16, while Spanish Whisper and Embrace Me are among other to have drawn out.
Selections according to the Robert Sangster Stakes trends
Sunlight is a risk at the price but the wide barrier isn’t a concern on trends, while she is the right age. For value, consider a Melbourne four-year-old and it is Humma Humma that ticks a number of boxes.