Rosehill Guineas Tips and Preview
Looking for Rosehill Guineas Tips on Saturday, March 21? Our form expert previews the three-year-old feature and gives his top selection for the race.
ROSEHILL GUINEAS PREVIEW
Saturday’s Group 1 Rosehill Guineas (2000m) looms as a Spring Champion Stakes rematch between Shadow Hero and Castelvecchio, but can another spoil the party?
Last campaign, Shadow Hero took out the Spring Champion Stakes from Castelvecchio, and that pair head the market for Saturday’s $600,000 feature.
Both will appreciate the step up in trip having finished 1st and 8th respectively in the Randwick Guineas (1600m), and both are deep enough into their preparations to be hitting top gear.
While the two obvious picks do look hard to beat, I’m looking elsewhere with another who will not only appreciate the step up in trip, but also has the form to be winning.
VERDICT AND BEST BET
The Anthony Freedman-prepared Chenier really caught the eye when flashing home in the CS Hayes Stakes (1400m) to be beaten 1.1 lengths by Alligator Blood.
He was heavily supported in the Australian Guineas (1600m), and while his effort rated high finishing 3.4 lengths from Alligator Blood, he looked a bit dour and is crying out for 2000m.
Chenier is by Medaglia d’Oro who has the best breeding success with Zabeel mares (13 winners) – and Chenier’s dam, Zydeco, who is by Zabeel, was a Wakeful Stakes (2000m) winner and runner-up in the VRC Oaks (2500m).
On breeding and judging by the way Chenier hit the line in the Australian Guineas, he can improve significantly over 2000m third-up, which is exactly what his dam did when third-up in the Wakeful for Lee and Anthony Freedman.
Chenier has run 10.5 and 10.2 lengths quicker than standard BM at his last two starts, and the strongest BM figures for any other Rosehill Guineas runner at their past two starts is 6.5 lengths quicker than standard.
HOW DO THE LEADING CONTENDERS RATE?
Only Castelvecchio has produced a higher figure in his career when going 14.5 lengths above BM in the Cox Plate when carrying 49.5kg.
That was his fourth run last campaign, and I think he needs one more before reaching his peak this time, while he also has to carry 7kg more here and is unlikely to get near his PB.
Shadow Hero’s last start win rated quite low (0.3 quicker than standard), and his personal best of 7.5 lengths quicker is only fourth best in the Rosehill Guineas.
Chenier on the other hand is likely to post a new personal best, and if he can do that, he’s the one to beat.
The New Zealand Derby (2500m) winner, Sherwood Forest, and 3rd placegetter, Scorpz, bring different form lines and are hard to line up, but neither looks suited dropping back in trip and may be more effective next time in the Australian Oaks (2400m).
Rosehill Guineas Tips: