Rosehill Guineas Tips: Who history points to winning

Adam Cusworth in Rosehill Guineas 18 Mar 2020
  • Which horse do the long term trends point towards in the Rosehill Guineas?
The Autumn Sun gets up in the 2019 Rosehill Guineas

The Rosehill Guineas (2000m) is the second leg of the Sydney Triple Crown for the three-year-olds and has been won by some big names in the past, including It’s A Dundeel in 2013, Tie The Knot in 1998 and Octagonal in 1996.

Kingston Town, Tulloch, Ajax and the mighty Phar Lap are just some of the other names to grace the honour roll of the $600,000 affair. The Autumn Sun claimed victory in 2019 in what was his last race before being retired to stud.

When it comes to picking a winner in the Rosehill Guineas there are a few things for you to consider. In weighing up the trends of the race since the year 2000, we can narrow the winner down to a few main chances.

16 of the 20 winners since 2000 have paid single figure odds and seven of those have started as favourite, including The Autumn Sun last year. Tarzino in 2016 and It’s A Dundeel in 2013 are other recent favourites to salute.

The Autumn Sun started at $1.40 last year but it is It’s A Dundeel that is the shortest priced winner this millennium, saluting at $1.30, while the longest priced winner is Sale Of Century at $21 in 2001. Universal Prince missed out as a $1.80 chance that year.

There have been only four horses to score above odds of $8 and the average price of the winning horses has been $7.15. This year, Shadow Hero is a $3.50 favourite in early markets with Sportsbet ahead of Castlevecchio at $5.50. Warning ($6.50), Chenier ($7) and Sherwood Forest ($9) are others under double figure odds.

The ideal lead up form to the Rosehill Guineas has been the Randwick Guineas (1600m) with 12 of the past 18 winners coming out of that including the past two winners, as well as Criterion in 2014. Five of those 11 have won the double. The 2017 winner, Gingernuts, took out the NZ Derby (2400m) prior to coming to Sydney and it is Sherwood Forest and Scorpios that will be out to emulate the feats of the fellow Kiwi this year. That duo ran 1st and 3rd across the ditch this year.

Horses to come out of the Randwick Guineas this year include Shadow Hero, who claimed that event, while others are Reloaded (4th) Warning (5th), The Holy One (6th), Prince Fawaz (7th), Castlevecchio (8th) and Pancho (11th). The 2016 winner, Tarzino, is one of only four winners of the Rosehill Guineas since 2000 to have been trained south of the Murray River in Victoria. The others were De Beers in 2006, Helenus in 2003 and Diatribe in 2000.

This year, Yulong Tavion and Ablestock are the Victorians. Four winners hailed from New Zealand, while the rest were New South Wales based. Successful trainers include Chris Waller, John Hawkes and Gai Waterhouse who have all had multiple winners in the Rosehill Guineas since 2000. Waller has Reloaded, Pancho and Impactful in the race this year.

Multiple winning jockeys include Larry Cassidy, Hugh Bowman and Craig Williams. Bowman rode Criterion in 2014 and D’Argento in 2018. He is without a runner this year. Williams rides Castlevecchio.

An interesting statistic is that 14 of the 20 winners have drawn between barrier’s 1 and 6. Barrier 2 has supplied four winners and none have won from the two outermost barriers. Warning, Scorpz, Reloaded, Pancho, Castlevecchio and Chains Of Honour occupy the first six barriers this year.

Selections based on trends.

Favourites have a terrific record here and Shadow Hero can get the job done.

Prediction
Shadow Hero $3.50 Bet now!