Australasian Oaks Tips and Preview
Looking for Schweppes Australasian Oaks Tips at Morphettville on Saturday, May 2? Our form expert has previewed the fillies’ event and given his top selection for the race.
SCHWEPPES AUSTRALASIAN OAKS TIPS 2020
This is an open event with the favourite, Affair To Remember, at $5.50 while another trio of gallopers are between $7.50 and $10 on the next lines of betting.
While I think Affair To Remember has plenty of upside and see plenty of merit in the way she has been hitting the line, I have one main concern.
This is her first go beyond 1700m, and her first beyond 1600m this campaign having resumed over 1300m before two runs over the mile.
She now goes from two 1600m runs on Good tracks to a 2000m race on a what is likely to be a Soft to Heavy track with Morphettville predicted to get plenty of rain leading up to Saturday.
That will make the Oaks feel more like a 2200m test, and for that reason, I’m leaning to one of Chris Waller’s runners who is rock-hard-fit coming off a 2nd placing in the Australian Oaks (2400m) at Randwick.
WHO WILL WIN THE SCHWEPPES OAKS?
TOFFEE TONGUE was runner-up in two maiden races over 1550 at Kensington before stepping up to 2000m in the Adrian Knox Stakes where she finished 2nd to Colette.
She then went into the Group 1 Australian Oaks as a maiden and was again runner-up to Colette.
Her performance in the Adrian Knox rated 11.2 lengths quicker than standard BM and that is the highest PB figure of any runner heading into Saturday’s Group 1 feature.
Last start she went 6.1 lengths quicker than BM, and that is the strongest last start BM figure of any runner in engaged in the Oaks.
Toffee Tongue has drawn barrier 3 in a race that lacks any serious early speed.
Other than Sierra Sue who rates as a front runner, everything else falls into the Midfield/Backmarker to Backmarker category, and I with fitness on her side, I can see Toffee Tongue trying to hold a spot just behind the speed.
She’ll have no problem running it out as she drops back in trip, and her last two high-rating performances have been on Heavy tracks so the more rain the better.
The stablemate Betcha Flying was my best bet last Saturday at Flemigton and duly saluted, but I’m dropping off here.
Toffee Tongue had her covered in the Adrian Know, and I thought Betcha Flying was better suited dropping back in trip which is why I was keen on her last start.
She’s certainly among the top chances, but I can’t have her above Toffee Tongue.
Affair To Remember will be finishing hard and also rates highly, but I don’t think she’s favoured by the map and am keen to take her on.
Walking Flying has form around Affair To Remember and clocked some slick sectionals last start charging home from the rear in the Group 3 Auraria Stakes (1800m) to finish 3rd.
At $41 Walking Flying looms as the best roughie in the race, but Toffee Tongue goes on to in my 2020 Schweppes Australasian Oaks Tips.