Schweppes Oaks Trends: Who history points to winning
SCHWEPPES OAKS HISTORICAL TRENDS
How can the Schweppes Oaks (2000m) trends help us find a winner in the first of the two Group 1 races at Morphettville on Saturday?
The Schweppes Oaks (2000m), also known as the Australasian Oaks is one of the big Group 1 races during the autumn carnival in Adelaide and has been won in the past by some quality performers including Rose Of Kingston (1982), Mannerism (1991) and Delicacy (2015).
Picking a winner in the $400,000 race can often be tricky as it usually attracts large numbers of runners with varying formlines, as they all converge from different venues towards Morphettville. Despite this, it has been a great race for favourite backers and if we analyse the Schweppes Oaks trends since the year 2000, we see that the average price of the winning horses has been a relatively low $6.40.
In the years the race has been run this millennium, 11 winners have started as the popular elect including the 2019 winner, Princess Jenni, as well as May’s Dream in 2014 ($3.20). Lights Of Heaven paid $2.50 in 2011.
The 2017 winner, Egg Tart, shared favouritism with Kenedna. In 2018, Sopressa, started at $6.50, just behind the $5 favourite, Savacool, who ran 5th. The 2016 winner, Abbey Marie, started as a $7 chance behind Silent Sedition at $3, while in 2015 it was Delicacy that also won at $7.
Only two horses have paid more than $8 since the year 2000 and they were Small Minds in 2010 and Irish Darling back in 2005. In early markets with sportsbet this year, Affair To Remember has been posted as a $5 chance ahead of the Chris Waller pair, Toffee Tongue ($8.50) and Betcha Flying ($9). Waller’s third runner, Nudge, is at $12, just behind Vegas Jewel ($9.50) and Silent Sovereign ($10).
Affair To Remember comes off a 3rd at Caulfield in the VOBISSires Guineas (1600m) recently. Last year’s winner, Princess Jenni, claimed victory at Caulfield before she won last year. Three of the past four winners of the Oaks have had their previous start in Melbourne.
The Auraria Stakes (1800m) is another key lead up. That race is usually run at Morphettville a fortnight before the Oaks and this year it was Silent Sovereign from Selica and Walking Flying. Eight of the 20 winners since 2000 had their previous run in the Auraria before claiming the Oaks, including four of the past eight.
Fascino, Nudge and Toffee Tongue had their most recent runs in Sydney. Only two winners since 2000 had their most recent runs in the harbour city but not many have come over in that time period. Nudge and Toffee Tongue have superior form than the likes of Amangiri in 2019. That horse ran 13th in this race last year after a Sydney preparation.
This year, 16 of the 20 runners (including Waller’s contenders) are listed as being trained in Victoria. Horses from the garden state have accounted for half of the 20 winners since 2000, while locally trained gallopers have been successful on just the four occasions in that time period. Four have come from Sydney (if you include Waller’s Egg Tart), while two have come from W.A.
An interesting statistic in the Schweppes Oaks is that there appears to be no obvious advantage for horses drawn in the first half of the field. 12 winners since 2000 have drawn in the first half of the field, while eight have drawn in the outer four positions. The most successful positions to jump from have been barriers 1 and 13, combining four seven winners. Beauty Bolt and Betcha Flying occupy those spots.
The most successful trainers in the race since the year 2000 have been Phillip Stokes and Darren Weir with two winners apiece. This year, Stokes has Selica.
Of the hoops, only Greg Childs and Damien Oliver have ridden multiple winners. Childs is long retried, while Oliver remains in Victoria. Dom Tourneur rides Betcha Flying this year and was successful aboard Maybe Discreet in 2013.
Selection according to the Schweppes Oaks trends
There is no obvious standout on trends but the Auraria Stakes has been a reliable guide and Silent Sovereign can go close.