Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes Winning Trends
The Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) is a Group 1 race at Caulfield that has been taken out by some big names in the past and we take a look at the Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes winning trends.
The race generally attracts a capacity field and has been won in the past by the likes of Santa Ana Lane (2017), Rebel Dane (2013), Exceed And Excel (2003) and Testa Rossa (2000).
Looking at the history of the Rupert Clarke since the year 2000, there are a few things to consider when selecting a winner. Big fields have generally been the order of the day with an average size of 16 runners and this, combined with the handicap conditions of the race, meant that it has been a mixed one for punters. The average price of the winning horses since 2000 is $8.60
Four horses have scored at odds of above $10 including two of the past three in Jungle Cat at $13 in 2018 and Santa Ana Lane at $26 in 2017. Turffontein ($14 in 2009), and Mr Murphy ($11 in 2001) are others that caused minor upsets.
A total of six favourites have won in the time period since 2000 including four of the past seven. They were last year’s winner, Begood Toya Mother, as well as Trust In A Gust, Rebel Dane and Moment Of Change. Bon Aurum won as a $4.50 pop in 2016, defeating the $3 chance, Counterattack.
In early markets with sportsbet this year it is Behemoth that has been installed as a $4.60 favourite after the barrier draw ahead of Tagaloa at $9.50 and Banquo at $16. Age Of Chivalry is at $10, while Superstorm ($11) and Cascadian ($12) head the rest.
Behemoth carries top weight of 60kg this year and has history against him as only two ‘toppie’s have won the event since 2000. Jungle Cat carried 58kg to victory in 2018, joining Testa Rossa, who scored in the year 2000. Dissident went close in 2014 when carrying 58kg but was pipped by Trust In A Gust, who won with 52kg.
The average weight of the winning horses has been 54kg. This year, Tagaloa and Banquo carry that weight, however, the minimum is 54 this year, whereas in the past it has been lower and was 52kg last year.
The Rupert Clarke has been dominated by horses aged four, with 11 of the last 20 winners coming from that age bracket including seven of the last 10. The four-year-olds this year are Superstorm, Pretty Brazen, Banquo and Harlech
Five horses aged five have won. Behemoth, Madam Rouge, Age Of Chivalry, Roheryn and I Am Superman are the five-year-olds this year.
Tagaloa creates interest and is lining up as a three-year-old. Only Exceed And Excel has scored as a three-year-old this millennium but few have tried. Smart Missile ran 10th as a youngster and as favourite behind Toorak Toff back in 2011.
Winners have been able to come from a variety of positions with half since 2000 coming from barrier 9 or wider. The most successful spot to jump from in the period since the year 2000 has been barrier’s 5 and 15 with four winners apiece. Stratum Star, Moment Of Change, Orange County (2008) and Pernod (2002) all won from 15. Behemoth has drawn the coveted barrier 5 this year, while the second emergency, I Am Superman, is in 15 at this stage.
Superstorm might end up jumping from that slot after the removal of the emergencies. Others to draw out include Streets Of Avalon and Dollar For Dollar.
In recent years, one of the key lead ups to the Rupert Clarke has been the Bobbie Lewis (1200m) at Flemington with four of the past 13 winners to come out of the straight track race. Banquo was runner-up in that race this year, while Dollar For Dollar was 5th.
With the slight tinkering of some of the spring race dates it may be worth looking at the form of lead-ups such as the Memsie Stakes (1400m), Lets Elope Stakes (1400m) and the Chandler McLeod Stakes (1200m).
Last year’s winner, Begood Toya Mother was 6th in the Memsie and again finished in that position this year. Behemoth comes off a Memsie win, while Cascadian was 4th.
Santa Ana Lane was 4th in the Chandler McLeod before he claimed victory in 2017. Age Of Chivalry placed 3rd in that race this year behind Showmanship, while Mandela Effect was 5th. The most successful jockeys since 2000 have been Craig Williams with a very healthy five winners, while Damien Oliver and Glen Boss have both won two apiece. Williams is on the race favourite, Behemoth, this year. Oliver steers Cascadian.
Interestingly, Darren Weir is the only trainer with multiple winners in the race since the year 2000 and has provided two of the past six winners. Anthony Freedman and Ciaron Maher are among other recent successful trainers. None of that trio have a runner this year.
Daniel Bowman will be going for back to back wins with Begood Toya Mother. No horse has won this race twice this millennium.
Selection based on Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes trends:
Banquo ticks the most boxes
RACE 8 - 4:50PM NEDS SIR RUPERT CLARKE STAKES (1400 METRES)
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