South Australian Derby Tips & Preview
Looking for South Australian Derby Tips on Saturday, May 9? Our form expert previews the Morphettville feature and gives his best bet.
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN DERBY TIPS
Saturday’s Group 1 SA Derby (2500m) at Morphettville sees 14 three-year-olds coming through six different form races.
Firstly, I’m going to risk the talented Russian Camelot as he’s had a far from ideal preparation going into a testing staying event.
And other than that, his last start performance rated 1.6 lengths slower than standard BM which is the lowest last start figure of any horse lining up in the Derby.
Russian Camelot did go 8.1 lengths quicker than BM when first-up over 1400m, so he is capable of posting a strong figure, but his interrupted campaign doesn’t indicate a PB is on the cards.
I also want to take on the Chris Waller-trained Miyake who rated low winning last start beating Flinders who had every chance to win at Canterbury on Wednesday and couldn’t get the job done.
THE LEADING CONTENDERS
Three fillies are backing up from last Saturday’s Group 1 Australasian Oaks.
Of that trio, Moonlight Maid looked a bit dour battling away and holding onto 2nd place, and she could take the next step as she goes up in trip.
Saint Eustace is an interesting runner.
He went 5.1 lengths quicker than BM last start when just beaten by Sacremento in the VRC St Leger (2800m).
Saint Eustace took a long time to wind up down the Flemington straight and the shorter straight at Morphettville as well as the drop back in trip may be against him.
He also finished eight lengths from Dalasan in the Port Adelaide Guineas (1800m) and that’s hard to ignore.
Race favourite Dalasan has been very impressive winning his past two, but there is a question mark around him running a strong 2500m.
His breeding indicates he’ll get the trip, and he’s clearly the most brilliant horse in the race, but I think one may be better suited over 2500m.
WHO WILL WIN THE SOUTH AUSTRALIAN DERBY?
Anthony Freedman’s Declaration Of War gelding, Warning, is already a winner at the distance having claimed the VRC Derby (2500m) last spring.
He finished two lengths from Shadow Hero in Randwick Guineas (1600m) and was 3.7 lengths from Castelvecchio in the Rosehill Guineas (2000m) before failing on a Heavy track in the Australian Derby (2400m).
He then looked unsuited dropping back in trip when 3rd behind Dalasan in the Chairman’s Stakes (2035m), but really caught the eye flying home late.
He was off the bit a long way from home but really warmed up late and only really got going in the final 200m.
Interestingly, Warning and Dalasan ran identical final 600m sectionals (36.52) but Warning went two lengths quicker in the final 200m.
There is no doubt about Warning getting the trip on Saturday, and he’ll be powering home when 80 percent of the field start to drop out.
Warning went forward in the VRC Derby, so I don’t think he’ll be too far off them on Saturday.
From barrier 3, he maps to get the run of the race just behind the speed, and from there, I can’t see anything holding him out with the closing speed he showed last start.