South Australian Derby Trends: Who history points to winning

Qafila clamed the 2019 South Australian Derby winner Qafila clamed the 2019 South Australian Derby winner

South australian derby HISTORICAL TRENDS

How can the South Australian Derby (2500m) trends help us find a winner in Group 1 race for the three-year-olds at Morphettville on Saturday?

The South Australian Derby (2500m) is one of the oldest races on the Australian racing calendar and was first run in 1860. It has been won in the past by the likes of Gatum Gatum (1961) and Subzero (1992), who would both go on to win Melbourne Cups (3200m).

In recent years, a number of quality gallopers including Mummify (2003), Rebel Raider (2009) and Delicacy (2015) have joined those two on the winners list. Last year it was the filly, Qafila, that bolted in for the Hayes & Dabernig stable.

When it comes to finding a winner in the Morphettville Group 1, there are a few things to consider and if we take a look at the South Australian Derby trends since the year 2000 it reveals the following.

Favourites have won eight of the past 13 edition’s of the 2500m feature including Delicacy at $1.90 in 2015, while Zabeelionaire was a $4 victor in 2012. The 2018 winner, Leicester, scored also scored at $4. Horses to get up at double figure odds include Qafila at $14 last year, while Escado at $13 in 2013. Shadows In The Sun saluted at $21 in 2011.

The highest priced winner since 2000 was Tails Of Trimophe, who won at $51 in 2006, while the average price of all the winning horses since the year 2000 has been $11.40. In early markets with sportsbet this year, the last start Chairmans Stakes (2035m) winner, Dalasun, is a $3 favourite ahead of Warning at $3.90, while Russian Camelot is $4.20. The filly, Moonlight Maid is at $13, while Miyake heads the rest at $18.

Dalasun drew barrier nine of 16 and it should be noted that eight of the winners since 2000 have drawn in the second half of the field, including the 2017 winner, Volatile Mix as well as Kidnapped (2010), Testafiable (2006) and Tails Of Triomphe (2005), who all drew the widest gate when they won.

There has been a slight advantage for horses drawn between barriers’s 1 to 6. Horses in those spots have won the race on 11 of the 20 occasions since 2000. This year, Warning has drawn barrier 3. The SA Derby tends to attract the best of the locals as well as horses from interstate and as such, the lead up form can be hard to get a gauge on to make a comparison. Russian Camelot is an example and comes out of a BenchMark 64 at Cranbourne.

Tread warily when considering that form. A recent reference to take into account is that 10 of the past 12 winners have had their most recent start at Morphettville, with five of those coming out of the Chairman’s Stakes (2020m), including three of the past four winners.

Behind Dalasun in that lead up this year were Themoonlitegambler and Warning, who filled the placings. Last year’s winner, Qafila, came out of the Schweppes Oaks.

Delicacy is another recent contender to have come out of the Oaks, auguring well of the likes of Moonlite Maid, Zaydani and Silent Sovereign. Moonlite Maid was runner-up in that race this year, while the other two were 7th and 10th respectively. Qafila was 4th in the Oaks last year.

In the 2019 Derby, Mr Quickie headed in as favourite after racing in the VOBIS Gold Heath (2000m) at Caulfield but could only manage 3rd at Morphettville. The last winner to come out of a race in Melbourne was Zabeeliionaire in 2012.

A number of trainers in this year’s S.A Derby have tasted success in the race before, including David Hayes. In 2016-2018 it was the disgraced ex-trainer, Darren Weir, who claimed those three versions of the race.

Hayes teams with his son, Ben, and Tom Dabernig and that training trio take Zayydani into the race.
In the time period this millennium, the SA Derby has predominately been won by trainers based in Victoria, while locally trained gallopers have won the race on just two occasions since 2000.

Of the hoops, John Allen. Greg Childs, Danny Nikolic and Ben Melham are all multiple winners of the race since 2000. This year, Allen is on Russian Camelot.

Selection according to the South Australian Derby trends

The Chairmans Stakes is definitely the proven lead up to this. Of those that come out of that, it is hard to split Themoonlitegambler and Warning on trends.

Prediction
Warning $4 Bet now!
Prediction
Themoonlitegambler $21 Bet now!