South Australian Derby Tips & Preview
SOUTH AUSTRALIAN DERBY TIPS & PREVIEW
Looking for South Australian Derby tips and best bets? We dissect times and form to find the winner of the 2022 South Australian Derby at Morphettville.
Tips will be available following the barrier draw. See our 2021 preview below for an example of what to expect.
This shapes as a quality edition of the South Australian Derby with the appearance of the likes of Explosive Jack, Liquero and Personal.
That trio head the early market with NEDS and it is the Australian Derby (2400m) winner, Explosive Jack, that has been installed as a $3.40 favourite ahead of Liquero at $5 and last year’s Kennedy Oaks (2500m) winner, Personal at $5.50. Deepstrike is another that is under the double figure odds and is at the $7.50 quote.
Explosive Jack produced a huge run when winning the Australian Derby at Randwick, settling 11th and overcoming a slow early tempo to get up in the nick of time from Young Werther
At his start prior to that he missed out behind Liquero in the Bendigo St Leger (2200m) with that pair clearing out by three lengths from the 3rd placegetter, Salto Angel. Explosive Jack was posted wide before running on. Liquero led that day and gave a kick.
The Cindy Alderson-trained galloper has since taken out the Galilee Series Final (2400m) at Caulfield. He went 7.6 lengths faster than standard benchmark that day, while Explosive Jack went 5.8 lengths faster in the Derby.
One of the key lead up races is the Chairmans Stakes (2040m) that was run at Morphettville on Apri 24. Nine of the 16 runners in this year’s field were in action that day.
Four of the past seven winners of the South Australian Derby come out of the Chairmans, most recently Leicester in 2018.
Royal Mile made it five wins from eight starts by taking out the Chairmans this year, going 8.6 lengths faster than standard benchmark. He led them up that day and has been improving his figures with every start.
Montepulciano settled handy and battled into the runner-up slot. Nobel Heights was a bit of an unlucky runner and placed 5th after being caught out wide. He produced the fastest last 200m. The step up to the 2400m should suit the son of Fiorente.
Deepstrike was the clear forgive run of the race, placing 8th but beaten just three lengths. The Mick Price-trained galloper was badly held up and defeated Nobel Heights by two lengths at his start prior.
Personal is right in contention and will be out to emulate the likes of Qafila, who backed up from an Australasian Oaks run to take out the South Australian Derby in 2019. Delicacy claimed the double in 2015.
Personal went 8.5 lengths faster than standard when finishing runner-up in the Australasian Oaks (2000m) last weekend. That is a fraction inferior than the 8.5 lengths faster that Royal Mile produced in the Chairmans.
But Personal boasts the best career figures of any runner when going 16.6 lengths faster than standard when runner-up in the Kewney Stakes (1600m) earlier this preparation.
Interestingly, she went 13.3 lengths faster than standard when taking out the Kennedy Oaks (2500m) at Flemington last November. That came on the short backup after she finished runner-up in the Wakeful Stakes (200m) the weekend before.
Another that comes into consideration is Let’s Karaka Deel, who steps up from the 1800m of the Port Adelaide Guineas. He bypassed the Chairmans and went 5.7 lengths faster than standard at his last start, which was a personal best. He will need to improve on that to feature but does have experience at the distance and was 5th in the Victoria Derby last year.
Others to have come out of separate races are Suppression, Solar Apex and Token Spirit. That trio will need to lift on recent runs and it is hard to see them featuring but for those that like a roughie it is worth noting that Solar Apex was a narrow runner-up behind Liquero over the 2000m back in January, going 9.4 lengths faster than standard. He is one that could surprise.
It will be interesting to see what pans out with the pace in the race as a number of the youngsters like to get back. The last start winners, Royal Mile and Liquero, pushed forward last time and will settle in the first half. Let’s Karaka Deel and Ichibansan might shoot forward from their wide barriers, while Montepulciano can box seat from barrier 1. I suspect this should be evenly run, giving those on speed as well as the back markers their chance
South Australian Derby Tips & Verdict
You could make a case for a number of these but I have settled on Personal. The fillies have done well in this race in recent times and the Dabernig/Hayes stable picked up the Derby in similar fashion with Qafila two years ago. The daughter of Fastnet Rock has had an interesting campaign and the Kewney run might have taken a bit out of her so she wasn’t at her best in Sydney. But I loved the way she hit the line in the Oaks last weekend, coming out wide and producing the fastest last 200m behind Media Award. She should be cherry ripe for the 2500m now and has been able to deliver on the short back up in the past, as evidenced by her run in the Kennedy Oaks last year. The wide barrier isn’t a huge concern for mine and as long as they don’t crawl early on she can run over the top of them with Damien Oliver on board.