Sydney Cup Trends: Who history points to winning
- Which horse do the long term trends point towards in the Sydney Cup?
SYDNEY CUP HISTORICAL TRENDS
How can the Sydney Cup (3200m) trends help us find a winner in the Group 1 stayers race at Randwick on Saturday?
The Sydney Cup (3200m) is one of the oldest races in Australia and while it does not enjoy the limelight of the Melbourne Cup (3200m), it has been won by some quality performers, including Makybe Diva (2004), Tie The Knot (1998/99) and Kingston Town (1980).
In analysing the recent Sydney Cup trends since the year 2000, there are a few things for you to keep in mind when making your selections. Finding a winner can be a little tricky due to the lack of similar distance races on the calendar and the average price of the winning horses has been $10.10. Last year, Shraaoh scored as a $12 chance, while in 2018, the veteran galloper, Who Shot Thebarman took out the race as an $18 pop.
In 2017, Polarisation won at $6.50. The then five-year-old won what was ‘take two’ of the famous event, which was re-run two weeks after the first was declared a no race due to Almoonqith breaking down the first time the field went past the finish. A total of seven favourites have won the race since 2000, including The Offer in 2014 and Niwot in 2012, while, surprisingly, Makybe Diva was a $3.50 second favourite behind Mummify ($3) when she won the race in 2004.
In early betting markets with Sportsbet this year it is the international galloper, Young Rascal, that has been posted as a $2.40 favourite ahead of Mustajeer at $5 and Raheen House at $8. Angel Of Truth ($12), Gallic Chieftain ($13) and The Chosen One ($15) head the rest.
The 3200m start at Randwick is a short run to the home turn before the stayers pass the post and embark on one full lap as they head for Group 1 glory. Despite the long distance, a good barrier can be crucial and all bar three winners since 2000 have drawn between barriers 1-8.
The average field size has been 14. Six of the past nine winners have drawn between barriers 1 to 6. This year, Corncrake, Yogi, Raheen House, Mustajeer, Saunter Boy and The Chosen One occupy those spots. The most successful age group since the year 2000 has been the five-year-olds with eight winners, including four of the past six, while horses aged six and seven have each provided four winners.
Only two four-year-olds have won the race in the time period since 2000 and they were Honor Babe in 2003 and Jessicabeel in 2010. Of the runners this year, Young Rascal and Hush Writer are five. The Chosen One, Angel Of Truth and Corncrake are the four-year-olds.
The race has been shared amongst a variety of trainers in the last 20 years and Chris Waller and Robert Hickmott are the only multiple winners. Waller has won three of the past five, including Shraaoh and Who Shot Thebarman. However, the leading trainer is without a runner in the race this year.
Gai Waterhouse was successful with The Offer in 2014 and has Hush Writer. Kris Lees saddled up County Tyrone back in 2006 and has Mustajeer and Sauntner Boy this year. There has been an even spread of jockeys to have won the race with only Jim Cassidy and Corey Brown successful on multiple occasions. This year, the ‘Pumper’ Cassidy is kicking back enjoying retirement, while Brown is recovering from a long term injury.
Last year’s winner, Jay Ford, is on Sauntner Boy. Kerrin McEvoy is another recent winner and he rides The Chosen One. The key lead up form to the Sydney Cup has traditionally been the Chairman’s Handicap (2600m), held at Randwick the week prior. 10 of the past 20 winners have had their last start in that race, including four of the past seven, while the Tancred Stakes (2400m) has also provided five winners.
Raheen House won the Chairmans this year ahead of Carif and Mirage Dancer. Gallic Chieftain was 4th. Mustajeer comes out of the Tancred Stakes and was runner-up to Verry Eleegant.
Young Rascal took out the Manion Cup (2400m). That hasn’t been the proven lead up over the years, although Gallante came out of that race in 2016 before winning the Sydney Cup.
Finally, for fans of Mustajeer, who carries topweight this weekend, Mourayan has been the only ‘toppie’ to have won the Sydney Cup since 2000, scoring with 58kg in 2013. The average weight that has been carried to victory has been 54kg and Raheen House carries that weight his year.
Selections according to the Sydney Cup trends.
Raheen House is the top selection according to the history of the Sydney Cup since the year 2000.