Tancred Stakes Tips: Who history points to winning

  • Which horse do the long term trends point towards in the Tancred Stakes?
Avilius wins the 2019 Tancred Stakes

The Tancred Stakes (2400m), formerly known as the BMW, is always one of the highlights of the Sydney autumn and has been taken out by some of the stars of the Australian turf, including Makybe Diva, who was a memorable winner in 2005 ahead of Grand Armee.

Tie The Knot, Might And Power and Octagonal are other champions to have saluted in the BMW in the last 25 years. Last year, Avilius claimed the Tancred. The $1.5 million race has also had its fair share of upsets and stirring battles. Curata Storm took out the race as a $101 outsider in 2001 and who could forget the 2003 version of the race, when Freemason and Northerly went stride for stride for the last 1000m, with the former somehow holding on for a remarkable win at $31.

In taking a look at the trends of the mile and a half race since the year 2000, there are a few things to consider when it comes to picking a winner. Eight favourites have won the BMW in that time period, including three of the past four in Avilius, Jameka (2017) and Preferment (2016), while Fiveandahalfstar (2013) and Tuesday Joy (2008) also scored as the popular elect. The 2018 winner, Almandin, started as a $3 chance, while the pre-race favourite, Gailo Chop finished 4th

At the opposite end of the scale, Cederberg (2011), Littorio (2010) and Fiumicino (2009) all scored at odds of $17 and above. But the last six winners have all won at $4.50 or lower. Hartnell won as a $3 pop in 2015.

This year, Verry Elleegant has been installed as a $2.05 favourite in early markets with sportsbet ahead of Avilius at $5. Mugatoo is an $8 chance just ahead of his stablemate, Mustajeer, at $9. Southern France and Mirage Dancer head the rest at $13.

The Tancred has generally been a successful one for horses in the four and five-year-old age bracket, combining for 13 wins, while horses aged three and six have won the BMW on three occasions each since 2000. Of the runners this year, Verry Elleegant, Carif and Angel Of Truth are four, while Mugatoo, Southern France and Danceteria are five.

The Rosehill 2400m start has given horses ample time to find a spot in running and as such, horses drawn out have tended to not be disadvantaged. In fact, 11 of the 20 winners since the year 2000 have drawn the second half of the field.

This year, Verry Elleegant has drawn barrier 6, while Danceteria, Southern France and Mugatoo are outside the favourites. Those numbers may change slightly after the removal of emergencies and/or scratchings. The average field size has been 10 runners and the most successful gate to jump from has been barrier 6, providing three winners.

The most successful trainer since 2000 has been John Hawkes, who trained Curata Storm and Freemason to victory, while he teamed up his sons, Michael and Wayne, to win with Fiumicino in 2009. This year the Hawkes team are without a runner.

Chris Waller claimed the race in 2016 with Preferment and saddles up Verry Elleegant. James Cummings won with Avilius last year and will be going for back to back wins with the six-year-old. Of the hoops, James McDonald, Hugh Bowman, Darren Beadman, Damien Oliver, Glen Boss and Rod Quinn have all had multiple winners in this race since 2000.

Of that group, McDonald is on Verry Elleegant, Bowman is on Avilius and Boss is on Angel Of Truth. Nine of the past 18 winners have come out of the Ranvet Stakes (2000m), while six have had their past run in the Australian Cup. Only Hartnell (2015) is a recent winner to have come out of the Sky High Stakes.

Of this year’s field, Verry Elleegant and Avilius were placed in the Ranvet. Mirage Dancer was 6th in the Australian Cup, while Southern France ran 7th. Mustajeer was runner-up in the Sky High Stakes on March 14.

Selections based on trends:

Verry Elleegant looks to be the one.

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