The Everest Tips & Preview
Looking for 2020 The Everest tips? Our form analyst previews the $15 million sprint feature and gives his best bets and predictions.
The Everest Preview
The fourth running of The Everest (1200m) at Royal Randwick is arguably the hardest renewal to decipher with 12 runners coming through seven different form races.
Classique Legend ($4.40) and Nature Strip ($4.60) are favourites for The Everest despite that pair being beaten by Libertini ($8) last start in the Premiere Stakes (1200m).
Gytrash ($6.50) splits that trio and could not have been more impressive defeating Nature Strip in the Concorde Stakes (1000m) on September 5.
Other than Libertini and Gytrash, Behemoth is the only other last start winner having taken out the Group 1 Memsie Stakes (1400m) and Group 1 Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes (1400m) at his past two starts.
Who has posted the strongest performances?
In terms of BM performance ratings, Gytrash recorded the strongest last start figure going 16 lengths quicker than standard BM.
He settled just behind the speed and gave Nature Strip windburn once he hit top gear and went straight past before being eased up.
Dollar For Dollar is next best having gone 13.6 lengths quicker than BM when runner-up in the Gilgai Stakes (1200m) where he ran 1:08.38.
Eduardo has the strongest career performance having gone 18.1 lengths quicker than BM when 3rd to Booker in the Group 1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m).
Nature Strip is next best having gone 17.1 lengths quicker than standard second-up when winning the Challenge Stakes (1000m).
A lot of people may be jumping off Nature Strip with him being beaten twice this campaign, but every time he has finished 4th in a preparation, he has followed that with a win so it would be foolish to dismiss him after his last start 4th placing.
As far as raw race times go, Libertini was sensational last start stopping the clock at 1:07.60 which is only a tick outside the track record set by Yes Yes Yes in last year’s The Everest when he ran 1:07.320.
Who will win The Everest in 2020?
Last year I tipped Yes Yes Yes in The Everest and he saluted at big odds for us, and the reason he stood out was the times he was running.
He ran 1:21.44 in the Golden Rose (1400m) before dropping back to 1200m in The Everest, and at his previous start he ran 1:08.44 in the Run To The Rose (1200m).
Libertini and runner-up Classique Legend have to be considered following the blistering times they ran last start.
Classique Legend has had his entire campaign geared toward Saturday’s run and he’s improved his BM performance by between five and eight lengths when third-up.
Libertini only gained a start in The Everest at the last minute, and her second-up form in every campaign rates below her first-up run.
For that reason, I’m happy to side with Classique Legend over Libertini.
Gytrash ran a personal best (-16) BM rating first-up this campaign, and he’s always continued to improve with each run in his campaigns.
He was eased down in his first-up run and could have rated higher, and if he improves just slightly again, his rating will be up there with the absolute elite sprinters at their very best.
Gytrash should land in the box seat three pairs back and one off the rail, and from there, he’ll get every chance to finish over the top of them in the straight.
Classique Legend looms as the biggest danger and I just hope Gytrash is in front of him as they straighten and can hold him off near the line.
As far as value goes, I think Eduardo is clearly over the odds at $27, and he goes up as my best value bet.
As well as having the highest rating career performance, Eduardo did it tough out three wide without cover last start and was narrowly beaten by Classique Legend.
He’s been freshened, will make his own luck on the pace, and could prove hardest to catch.