The Goodwood Trends: Who history points to winning
the goodwood HISTORICAL TRENDS
How can the Goodwood (1200m) trends help us find a winner in the time honoured Group 1 for the sprinters at Morphettville on Saturday?
The Goodwood (1200m) is the premier horse race in Adelaide and has a rich history that stretches back to 1881. The Group 1 was formerly known as the Goodwood Handicap until the conditions of the race were changed in 2007 from a handicap to set weights and penalties.
Since then, it has been known as The Goodwood and it has been taken out by the likes of Takeover Target in 2009 and Black Caviar in 2012, while the most recent winner was Despatch. In looking at the recent Goodwood trends, there are a few things to keep in mind when attempting to pick the winner of the Morphettville sprint race.
Despite the dominance of Black Caviar, who scored as a $1.05 favourite, and Takeover Target ($1.40), the race has generally been a graveyard for favoured horses. Since the year 2000, the average price of the winning horses has been $14.30. Despatch won at $21 last year, while Santa Ana Lane won at $26 in 2018.
Other roughies to score in recent times include Flamberge, who scored at the odds of $21 in 2015 while Smokin Joey won at $41 in 2014. Vega Magic ($4.50 in 2017) and Black Heart Bart ($2.80 in 2016) have given favourite backers some respite but upsets have been the order of the day. In early markets with Sportsbet this year, Gytrash has been installed as a $3.60 chance, while Santa Ana Lane is at $7. Trekking is at $7.50 ahead of Sunlight at $9, while The Inevitable heads the rest at $10. Order Of Command ($13), Behemoth ($14) and Lyre ($15) are among those that are near the long term average price of the winners.
The Goodwood has usually attracted a very large field and the average size has been 17 runners. Only nine lined up in 2012 when most connections of a number of potential rivals would have been aiming to avoid the mighty Black Caviar. The large fields have generally ensured a solidly run race and as such, horses from a variety of positions have been able to win. Despite the short distance of the race, a good barrier has tended to play no real decisive advantage in the outcome.
In terms of lead up form, eight winners since 2000 have had their final runs at Morphettville, with three of those in the Robert Sangster Stakes (1200m). The last two winners have come out of the McKay Stakes (1100m). Bomber Bill in 2003 is another horse that had his final lead up run in that race.
Five have come out of various races in Sydney, while five had their last starts in Melbourne, including two out of the Victoria Handicap (1400m). Vega Magic was first up after racing in Perth prior to his win in 2017. This year, Gytrash comes out of the Irwin Stakes at Morphettville, winning ahead of Sunlight, who has since finished down the track in the Sangster. Jungle Edge was too good in the McKay, defeating Behemoth on the Heavy track.
The Inevitable comes over after missing out with a big weight at Flemington on ANZAC Day. Lyre (runner-up) and Amberdi (4th) are among others that raced in the Sangster.
In terms of the ages of previous winning horses, a spread of age groups have been represented with the four and five-year-olds winning on five occasions each, while four horses aged three have won since 2000. Takeover Target won at the age of nine in 2009.
The three-year-olds this year are Lyre, Xilong, Free Of Debt and Li’l Kontra. Trekking and Order Of Command are five, while there are a host of four-year-olds including Gytrash and Sunlight.
Since the year 2000, five mares (including Lone Rock, who was a filly at the time) have won the Goodwood. This year, members of the fairer sex are Sunlight, Lyre, Xilong, Amberdi and Lil Kontra.
Successful trainers in the Goodwood include Darren Weir, Mick Price, Peter Moody and Robert Smerdon. That quartet have all won the race on two occasions since 2000 but none have a runner this year. The Tony and Calvin McEvoy stable won with Despatch last year and have Sunlight and Xilong this year.
Santa Ana Lane, Sunlight, Zoutori, Jungle Edge, The Inevitable, Order Of Command and Lyre are among those that are listed as being trained in Victoria. Victorian trainers have dominated the race in recent times, winning it for the last nine years.
Ben Melham and Steven King are two jockeys that have won the race more than once since 2000. Melham rode Santa Ana Lane last year as well as Smokin’ Joey in 2014 and Platelet in 2013 but is without a ride this year.
Selections according to the Goodwood trends
This is a tough one to assess on trends. Look for a Victorian trained horse that has had a recent run in Adelaide and is paying odds above $10.