The Metropolitan Tips & Preview

Aaron Hamilton in The Metropolitan 30 Sep 2020
The Metropolitan Tips

 

Looking for The Metropolitan horse racing tips on Saturday, October 3? Our form expert previews the Randwick staying event and gives his best bets.

The Metropolitan Preview

Two main form lines to assess heading into The Metropolitan with 11 runners coming through the Kingston Town Stakes (2000m) and six coming via the Newcastle Cup (2300m).

Etah James is first-up from a spell having won the Sydney Cup (3200m) at her most recent start, and stablemate Lord Belvedere is listed as running at Flemington on Ciaron Maher’s website.

Mirage Dancer comes off a 4th placing in the JRA Cup (2040m), Raheen House was beaten nearly 12 lengths in the Wyong Cup (2100m) and the fourth emergency, Grey Lion, was 3rd in the Colin Stephen Quality (2300m) but is unlikely to get a run.

The Kingston Town Stakes rated much higher than the Newcastle Cup, but that may have been due to a hotter early tempo so I’m reluctant to place more emphasis on either race.

How do the Newcastle Cup runners stack up?

The Kris Lees-trained Mugatoo was a clear standout in the Newcastle Cup.

He got into a bumping dual down the straight but stuck to the task and finished best with 59kg on his back ahead of Hush Writer and stablemate Attention Run who now meet him 1kg better at the weights.

I can’t go past him out of the Newcastle Cup runners.

How do the Kingston Town Stakes runners stack up?

Shared Ambition was runner-up to Taikomochi and seemed to peak late after making a long, sustained run.

That run would have topped him off nicely and he had no issue going from 1800m to 2400m and winning in Melbourne so the step up from 2000m to 2400m this time looks ideal.

On face value, Zebrowski may have looked a bit disappointing after enjoying the softest of runs and failing to quicken with others, but at the weights, Zebrowski looks a standout.

He carried 1kg over weight with Hugh Bowman being allowed to ride at 56kg, and he now drops to 50kg.

Shared Ambition only drops 1.5kg and stablemate Brimham Rocks who finished 3rd now drops 3kg.

Zebrowski essentially meets Brimham Rocks 3kg better at the weights and Shared Ambition 4.5kg better, and that weight makes all the difference in a testing 2400m event.

Who will win The Metropolitan in 2020?

Zebrowski peaked fourth-up last campaign going 11.6 lengths quicker than standard BM when runner-up to Quick Thinker in the Group 1 Australian Derby (2400m).

He has followed the same path this preparation and goes into Saturday’s feature fourth-up having built fitness over 1400m, 1600m and 2000m.

I have a healthy respect for Mugatoo and think he rates as the main danger.

But considering Zebrowski produced higher figures last start, has higher figures over 2400m and drops 6kg on his last run while Mugatoo drops 2kg on his last run, Zebrowski rates as the one to beat.