Thousand Guineas Tips & Preview
Looking for Thousand Guineas Tips and Best Bets on Saturday, October 10? Our form analyst previews the fillies feature and gives his top predictions.
Thousand Guineas Preview
A field of 14 fillies line up in the 2020 Group 1 Thousand Guineas (1600m) at Caulfield with eight of those fillies coming out of the Thousand Guineas Prelude (1400m).
Hungry Heart and Vangelic face the one-week back-up having run 2nd and 3rd in the Group 1 Flight Stakes (1600m), as does Thermosphere who won the Edward Manifold Stakes (1600m) last Saturday.
Odeum, Aidensfield and Agreeable make up the remainder of the field having finished 1st, 2nd and 6th in the J Moloney Stakes (1400m).
At first glance, Instant Celebrity and Hungry Heart look hardest to beat, but this is a tricky race to dissect and we could see a rough result.
How do the Prelude runners stack up?
Phillip Stokes has done a great job with Instant Celebrity and it’s impossible to knock her when she’s won four from four.
She was last out of the gates and settled toward the rear before building momentum on the bend levelling up at the top of the straight and grinding away for a length victory.
I expected her to really put them away in the straight and this leaves a bit of guess work.
Did she peak on her run late or was she a bit one-paced because she is looking for further? Or did she switch off knowing she had them covered?
The Matthew Smith-prepared Rock My Wand caught the eye working home strong out wide and ran the quickest final 200m (12.51) of the race.
She’s placed in seven on nine starts and looks a great value chance at $18.
How do the Flight Stakes runners compare?
Vangelic lead and weakened while Hungry Heart loomed and looked the winner but was edged out late by Montefilia.
The Flight Stakes rated higher than the Thousand Guineas Prelude by a couple of lengths, but that may have been due to the quicker early tempo.
Hungry Heart clearly peaked on her run late after building nicely through all of her 200m splits going 11.60, 11.56, 11.32 and 12.04 from the 800m mark.
Is the Jim Moloney for strong enough?
Odeum won the race going 5.2 lengths quicker than standard BM which rates lower than Hungry Heart (–9.8) and Instant Celebrity (-7.0).
She enjoyed the perfect run in transit, got a split at the top of the straight and attacked the line well, but the fact she got all the favours is a detractor when her performance rates lower than others.
Aidensfield chased gallantly but was safely held in the straight and it’s hard to make a case for her turning the tables here.
Who will win the 2020 Thousand Guineas?
I’m leaning toward Chris Waller and Hugh Bowman scoring with Hungry Heart.
I think the 1600m run at elite level gives her an advantage here when we simply don’t know if most of these will run the trip genuinely.
Hungry Heart should be at her absolute peak now, and from barrier 3, she can settle in a prime position and absorb some pressure before powering through the line this time.
I’m keen to have something on Rock My Wand at an each-way price with that filly looking suited stepping up in trip.