Thousand Guineas Winning Trends

Adam Cusworth in Thousand Guineas 6 Oct 2020
Thousand Guineas trends

 

The Thousand Guineas (1600m) gives the fillies a shot at Group 1 glory and we take a look at the Thousand Guineas winning trends.

The $1 million race is the female equivalent of the Caulfield Guineas and was previously run on the Wednesday during the Caulfield Cup Carnival before being moved to its current date seven years ago. Despite carrying less prizemoney than the Caulfield Guineas the race has been won by some champions of the turf including Atlantic Jewel (2011), Miss Finland (2006) and Alinghi (2004). Last year, the Guineas was taken out by Flit.

If we look at Thousand Guineas winning trends since the year 2000 as a guide to help us land the winner, it reveals the following.

While Flit scored as a $2.35 chance last year, the race has been a bit of a mixed one for favourite backers. Prior to Flit, Melody Belle was upstaged as a $2.15 chance in 2018 by Amphitrite, who won at $13 and in 2017, Alizee went down to Aloisia, who also scored at $13. Guelph (2013) was the last popular elect to score before Flit.

Since 2000, eight horses have won as favourite. Atlantic Jewel (2012, Miss Finland (2006) and Alinghi (2004) are among those. A further eight won at double figure odds, including Amicus for Chris Waller in 2014 as well as the quality performer, Magical Miss in 2001.

In markets with ladbrokes after the barrier draw, Hungry Heart has been posted as a $3.30 chance, just ahead of the last start Thousand Guineas Prelude (1400m) winner, Instant Celebrity. Vangelic is at $8.50, while Aidensfield ($11), Thermosphere ($13) and Personal ($13) head the rest.

The Thousand Guineas Prelude has provided just five winners since 2000 but three of those have been in the last six years. Behind Instant Celebrity in that race this year were Personal and Rock My Wand.

The traditional lead up to the Thousand Guineas was the Group 2 Edward Manifold Stakes (1400m) at Flemington. But because of the change of dates for the Thousand Guineas, fewer runners have come out of that race in more recent times

Since 2000, nine winners have come out of that race but only one in the last seven years since the change of dates. Amphitrite was good enough to win on the back up in 2018. Last year, no horses that ran in the Manifold backed up to take part in the Thousand Guineas but this year, Thermosphere will be out to emulate Amphitrite.

Hungry Heart comes down after finishing runner-up in the Flight Stakes (1600m). Four winners have come out of that race since 2000 and the most recent was Global Glamour in 2016. A total of four Sydney gallopers have won the Thousand Guineas since 2000.

Eight winners of the Thousand Guineas since 2000 were last start winners, while five were placed prior to their Thousand Guineas run. A further seven finished out of the placings. Thermosphere, Instant Celebrity and Odeum are the last start winners in the field this year.

Winners of this race have been able to come from a wide range of barriers since the year 2000. The most successful to jump from in that time period has been barrier 8, providing three winners, while two have jumped from 3, 4 and 5.

This year, Hungry Heart has drawn barrier 3, while Odeum is in barrier 4. Rock My Wand will jump from barrier 5, while Personal has drawn barrier 8.

The most successful trainer since 2000 has been David Hayes with three winners, while Lee Freedman has also saddled up two winners. Hayes claimed the race in 2015 with Stay With Me and this year it is Tom Dabernig and Ben Hayes that saddle up Personal for Lindsay Park.

Freedman’s brother (Anthony) and nephew (Sam) have Agreeable. Thermosphere represents the Godolphin stable, who had success with Flit last year.

The leading jockey since 2000 has been Damien Oliver with four wins and this year ‘Ollie’ rides Personal. Hugh Bowman has had two winners, including Flit last year and he rides Hungry Heart this year. Craig Williams has also ridden two winners and is on Instant Celebrity this year.

Selections based on the Thousand Guineas winning trends:

On trends it is really hard to split both Instant Celebrity and Thermosphere. Recent trends point to the Prelude having a slight advantage over the Manifold but on trends there isn’t much in it.

 

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